2025-05-26-Jefferies-拼多多（PDD）_速评_拼多多2025年第一季度业绩_7页_102kb

Pinduoduo 1Q25 Results Summary

Core Content

Pinduoduo (PDD) reported its first-quarter 2025 results, which showed revenue growth below market expectations. The company's total revenue grew by 10% YoY to RMB95.7bn, falling short of both the consensus estimate and the analysts' forecasts. Revenue from online marketing services and others increased by 15% YoY to RMB48.7bn, slightly exceeding the consensus of 13.5% and the analysts' estimate of 14%. Transaction services revenue, however, only grew by 6% YoY, significantly below the consensus of 26% and the analysts' estimate of 28%.

Gross profit reached RMB54.7bn, lower than the consensus of RMB59bn and the analysts' estimate of RMB60bn. Gross margin (GPM) was 57%, compared to the consensus of 58.2%. Non-GAAP operating profit (OP) came in at RMB18.3bn, also below the consensus and estimates. Non-GAAP net profit was RMB16.9bn, well below the consensus of RMB27.9bn and the analysts' estimate of RMB26.7bn.

Key Focus Points in Upcoming Earnings Call

1. Impact of Tariffs on Temu: The company will discuss how recent tariff changes have affected Temu's performance.
2. Temu Strategies in US and Non-US Markets: Updates on the company's strategies in different regions, including investments made in 2024.
3. Consumer Sentiment and Domestic Competition: Insights into consumer behavior and competition in the domestic market, along with expectations for 2025.
4. GMV and Take Rate Trends: Analysis of trends in gross merchandise value and take rates across online marketing and commissions.
5. Product Category Trends: Information on the performance of various product categories.
6. Operating Expenses: Trends in operating expenses, especially sales and marketing (S&M) costs.
7. Duoduo Grocery Business Trends: Updates on the performance and direction of the Duoduo Grocery segment.
8. Use of Cash: Discussion on the company's cash flow management and capital allocation strategies.

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: USD156.00 (+31% from current price of USD119.24)
• Market Cap: USD174.48 billion
• 52-Week High-Low: USD164.69 - USD87.11

Analysts and Disclosures

• Analysts: Thomas Chong and Zoey Zong from Jefferies Hong Kong Limited
• Disclosure Notes:
  • Analysts are not registered with FINRA and may not be subject to certain restrictions.
  • Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to business relationships with companies covered in the report.
  • The report is not tailored to individual investors and should be considered only as one factor in investment decisions.
  • Jefferies does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.

Company Overview

Pinduoduo is a "team purchase"-based e-commerce platform in China with a large user base and high GMV. It primarily monetizes through advertising and transactional services, focusing on user experience and merchant empowerment.

Valuation and Risks

• Valuation Methodology: Based on SOTP valuation, the company is rated as a Buy.
• Risks:
  • Intensified domestic competition
  • Aggressive domestic S&M spending amid price wars
  • Stringent regulations on cross-border e-commerce
  • Heightening geopolitical risks

Summary of Key Financial Metrics

Conference Call Details

• Date and Time: May 27, 2025 at 7:30pm HKT (7:30am ET)
• Webcast Link: https://investor.pddholdings.com/investor-events

Additional Information

• The report includes a chart of the rating and price target history for PDD, showing a predominance of Buy ratings over the past three years.
• Jefferies maintains a non-US affiliate structure, with different regulatory compliance requirements in various jurisdictions.
• The report is subject to various legal and regulatory disclosures and is not intended as investment advice.