20181115-USDA-Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_27页_2mb

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets for the third quarter of 2018 and outlooks for 2019. It covers changes in ending stocks, production forecasts, price trends, and trade dynamics across key commodities.

Key Commodity Trends

• Lamb, Broiler, and Butter:
  • Lamb stocks increased by almost 29%.
  • Broiler stocks rose by over 17%.
  • Butter stocks increased by nearly 11%.
• Eggs:
  • Ending stocks decreased by nearly 15%, primarily due to a significant drop in dried egg stocks.
• Pork:
  • Ending stocks decreased by nearly 5%, despite record production.
• Other Commodities:
  • Turkey stocks declined slightly (less than 1%).
  • Cheese stocks increased by over 4%.

Main Views and Insights

Beef/Cattle

• Production:
  • 2018 beef production forecast was reduced by 30 million pounds to 26.9 billion pounds.
  • 2019 forecast was lowered by 100 million pounds to 27.8 billion pounds due to fewer cattle placements in feedlots.
• Prices:
  • Fourth-quarter 2018 fed steer prices were raised to $112-$116/cwt.
  • First-quarter 2019 fed steer prices were raised to $118-$126/cwt.
• Exports:
  • U.S. beef exports reached a record 826 million pounds in the third quarter.
  • 2018 annual export forecast was raised to 3.190 billion pounds.
  • 2019 export forecast was adjusted upward to 3.265 billion pounds.
• Imports:
  • Third-quarter 2018 imports were slightly below 2017 levels, but 2018 annual import forecast was lowered to 3.014 billion pounds.
  • 2019 import forecast was revised downward to 3.060 billion pounds.

Dairy

• Production:
  • Milk production in September 2018 was 1.3% higher than the previous year.
  • Milk cow numbers declined, with significant downward revisions for June, July, and August.
• Prices:
  • Fourth-quarter 2018 all-milk price forecast was lowered to $17.05-$17.35 per cwt.
  • 2018 annual all-milk price forecast was $16.20-$16.30 per cwt.
  • 2019 all-milk price forecast was $16.70-$17.60 per cwt.
• Exports and Imports:
  • Fourth-quarter 2018 dairy exports were unchanged at 1.8 billion pounds (milk-fat basis) and 10.2 billion pounds (skim-solids basis).
  • Imports on a skim-solids basis were reduced to 1.3 billion pounds for 2018.
  • 2019 export forecast remained at 9.8 billion pounds (milk-fat basis) and 44.1 billion pounds (skim-solids basis).
  • Ending stocks for 2018 were raised to 13.9 billion pounds (milk-fat basis) and 10.7 billion pounds (skim-solids basis).
• Product Prices:
  • Cheddar cheese prices were lowered to $1.465-$1.495 per pound.
  • Butter prices were reduced to $2.200-$2.320 per pound.
  • Dry whey and nonfat dry milk prices were slightly increased.
  • Class III and IV milk prices were also lowered for 2019.

Poultry/Eggs

• Broiler:
  • Production projections were revised down due to declining chick placements.
  • Ending stocks increased due to strong production and imports.
• Egg:
  • No revisions were made to egg production or trade forecasts.
  • 2018 turkey production was lowered by 24 million pounds to 5.875 billion pounds.
  • 2019 turkey production was reduced by 80 million pounds to 5.905 billion pounds.

Feed Price Outlook

• Alfalfa Hay:
  • September price was $180 per short ton, up $3 from August and $31 from September 2017.
• Corn:
  • 2018/19 price forecast was $3.20-$4.00 per bushel, up 10 cents from last month.
• Soybean Meal:
  • Forecast remained unchanged at $290-$330 per short ton.

Pork/Hogs

• Production:
  • Fourth-quarter 2018 pork production is expected to be a record high at over 7 billion pounds.
  • 2019 production forecast was reduced by 45 million pounds to 6.85 billion pounds.
• Prices:
  • Fourth-quarter 2018 hog prices are expected to be $40-$42 per cwt, a 9% decline from the same period in 2017.
  • Hog producers are facing lower returns, with an average loss of $24.58 per hog through September.
• Exports:
  • September 2018 exports were 432 million pounds, a 2.6% increase from 2017.
  • Third-quarter 2018 exports totaled 1.295 billion pounds, a 5.3% increase from 2017.
  • Mexico remained the largest buyer, but shipments were lower than 2017.
  • China and Hong Kong saw significant declines in exports, with a 33.8% drop in September.

Summary of Key Changes

• Stocks:
  • Lamb, broiler, and butter stocks saw substantial increases.
  • Egg and pork stocks decreased.
• Prices:
  • Beef and dairy prices showed mixed trends, with some increases and others decreases.
  • Pork prices remained low, with a significant drop in live hog prices.
• Exports:
  • Beef and pork exports hit record levels in 2018, driven by strong demand and competitive pricing.
• Imports:
  • Beef imports increased slightly in September, but overall third-quarter imports were slightly below 2017.
  • Pork imports were mixed, with declines in key markets like Mexico and China.

Conclusion

The U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets experienced varied trends in the third quarter of 2018. While lamb, broiler, and butter stocks increased significantly, egg and pork stocks decreased. Beef production and exports remained strong, supported by favorable demand and pricing. Dairy markets showed some price declines but were influenced by herd size and production efficiency. Pork production continued to grow, but demand and prices remained relatively stable despite lower returns for producers. Overall, the outlook suggests a mix of opportunities and challenges for the industry in 2019.