美国岸基风电市场报告2023版-96页_3mb

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2023 Executive Summary

Installation Trends

• US Wind Capacity: Added 8.5 GW in 2022, for cumulative capacity exceeding 144 GW as of year-end.
• Regional Concentration: Development concentrated in ERCOT and SPP regions, accounting for approximately 77% of new capacity.
• Hybrid Projects: Limited growth in 2022, mostly solar-hybrid systems with solar+storage installations increasing rapidly.
• Interconnection Queues: Record 300 GW of wind capacity in queues at the end of 2022, with solar and storage growing faster.

Industry Trends

• Manufacturers: GE led the market with 58% share, followed by Vestas (24%), Nordex (10%), and SGRE (8%).
• Supply Chain: Domestic manufacturing declined, particularly for blades, but optimism exists due to the Inflation Reduction Act.
• Ownership: Independent power producers (IPPs) owned 84% of new capacity, while direct retail buyers purchased 44% of new capacity.

Technology Trends

• Turbine Growth: Larger turbine sizes, taller hub heights, and increased rotor diameters drove higher capacity factors.
• Specific Power: Declined over time, enabling better performance in lower-wind sites, reversing recent trends.
• Turbine Height: Average tip height reached 164 meters for operational turbines, with projected increases.

Performance Trends

• Capacity Factors: Fleet-wide average capacity factor improved to 36% in 2022, with higher factors in central states.
• Curtailment: Increased national average wind curtailment to 5.3%, higher in SPP and ERCOT due to transmission constraints.

Cost Trends

• Turbine Prices: Increased due to supply chain pressures, averaging $1,000/kW after four years of stability.
• Installed Costs: Relatively stable despite high turbine costs, lowest in ERCOT and SPP.
• O&M Costs: Decreased over time, with newer projects incurring lower costs.

Power Sales & Levelized Costs

• PPA Prices: Rose since 2018, ranging from $20/MWh to over $40/MWh in 2022.
• LCOE: National average reached $32/MWh for 2022 projects, but varies regionally with higher costs in PJM.

Value Comparisons

• Grid Value: Varies widely by region, highest in ISO-NE ($83/MWh) and CAISO ($76/MWh).
• Health & Climate Benefits: Added $135/MWh in 2022, outweighing grid value and making wind competitive economically.

Future Outlook

• Growth Forecast: Capacity additions expected to grow from 7–12 GW annually under the Inflation Reduction Act.
• Key Drivers: PTC extensions, domestic manufacturing expansion, and transmission upgrades to support deployment.

End of summary.