德银-美股-宏观经济-美联储观察员：弱势美元支撑增长和通胀--20180129-6页_643kb

报告摘要

Fed Watcher: Weaker Dollar Provides a Tailwind to Growth and Inflation

Core Content

This report from Deutsche Bank discusses the potential impact of a weaker U.S. dollar on economic growth and inflation, in the context of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. The key message is that dollar weakness can provide a positive tailwind to both growth and inflation over the next year.

Main Points

Dollar Weakness and Economic Impact: A weaker dollar is expected to modestly boost economic growth and inflation. According to research, a 10% depreciation of the U.S. dollar could increase core PCE inflation by approximately 0.3% in the first year and raise real GDP by about 1.5% after three years.
Net Exports: A weaker dollar should also enhance net exports by increasing the competitiveness of U.S. goods and services abroad.
Fed Policy Outlook: The Deutsche Bank maintains its view that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates four times in 2018 and three times in 2019, reflecting a continued tightening cycle.
Fedspeak Insights: During a blackout period, the Fed's communication was limited, but the key takeaway was that the Fed is on the right path. The employment mandate is largely satisfied, and the Fed is willing to support monetary stimulus if inflation remains low. There is also a reference to the importance of policy transparency through a policy rule.

Key Information

The dollar has fallen to its weakest level in several years, indicating a significant depreciation trend.
The report highlights the importance of monitoring the FOMC's upcoming rate decision on January 31, as well as speeches by Fed officials like Kaplan and Williams in early February.
The analysis includes macroeconomic research, including the effects of exchange rate changes on output and inflation, and the impact of demographic changes on the unemployment rate.
The report also includes a disclaimer and important disclosures related to the research and its potential conflicts of interest.

Events to Watch

January 31: FOMC rate decision
February 2: Speeches by Kaplan and Williams

Analysts and Contact Information

Matthew Luzzetti – Senior Economist, (+1) 212 250 6161 | matthew.luzzetti@db.com
Brett Ryan – Senior Economist, (+1) 212 250 6294 | brett.ryan@db.com
Justin Weidner – Economist, (+1) 212 469 1679 | justin-s.weidner@db.com
Laura Desplans – Economist, (+1) 212 250 7583 | laura.desplans@db.com
Avik Chattopadhyay – Associate, avik-chattopadhyay@db.com

Disclaimer and Legal Information

The report is prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or its affiliates and is based on information from public sources.
The views expressed are those of the analysts and do not necessarily reflect the views of Deutsche Bank.
The report may include recommendations or estimates that are subject to change without notice.
Deutsche Bank provides liquidity for securities it covers and may have holdings in the subject companies.
The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments and does not take into account individual investment objectives.
The report is intended for financially sophisticated individuals and does not provide investment, legal, or tax advice.
Additional information and disclosures are available on the Deutsche Bank website and should be reviewed before making investment decisions.

Risk Considerations

Fixed-income instruments are sensitive to macroeconomic shocks, such as interest rate increases, inflation, and FX depreciation.
Derivative transactions involve market, counterparty, and liquidity risks.
Currency risk is inherent in transactions involving foreign currencies.
Futures and options trading can result in significant losses due to leverage.

Regulatory Information

The report is approved and distributed by various Deutsche Bank entities in different jurisdictions, each subject to local regulations.
In the U.S., it is approved by Deutsche Bank Securities Incorporated, a FINRA member.
In Germany, it is approved by Deutsche Bank AG, subject to ECB and BaFin oversight.
In the U.K., it is approved by Deutsche Bank AG acting through its London Branch.
In Singapore, it is issued by Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch or Deutsche Securities Asia Limited.
In India, it is prepared by Deutsche Equities India Private Limited, registered with SEBI.
In Japan, the report is issued by Deutsche Securities Inc. and some foreign securities may not be disclosed under Japanese law.
In South Africa, it is distributed by Deutsche Bank AG Johannesburg.
In Korea, it is distributed by Deutsche Securities Korea Co.
In Russia, the report does not constitute any appraisal or evaluation activity requiring a license.
In Saudi Arabia, it is distributed by Deutsche Securities Saudi Arabia LLC, regulated by the Capital Market Authority.
In the UAE, it is distributed by Deutsche Bank AG in the DIFC, available only to Professional Clients.
In Australia and New Zealand, the research is intended only for wholesale clients.