2025-06-10-花旗集团-亚洲经济与策略日报_中国GDP平减指数将持续为负；中国出口持续韧性_13页_256kb

报告摘要

Citi Research Summary: Asia Economics & Strategy Daily (June 10, 2025)

Report Focus: Analysis of economic conditions and investment strategies in Asia-Pacific, with emphasis on China, currency markets, and emerging markets (EM).
China Economic Overview:
- Exports show resilience (up 4.8% YoY in May), driven by trade rerouting to the RoW, despite a decline in US exports.
- GDP deflator remains negative, with inflation dynamics weakening in May; core goods prices rose due to base effects, but big-ticket items moderated.
- Trade surplus widened amid elevated tariffs; no immediate pressure for US-China deal or stimulus, as export strength is expected to continue.
- Real GDP growth in Q2 is projected at over 5%, supported by a lower base in Q3.
- No major policy changes anticipated by the July Politburo meeting or by September 2025.
Macroeconomic Forecasts (Asia-Pacific):
- Real GDP growth in 2025F averages 3.8% across countries, with varying rates like 4.7% for China and slowing growth in others (e.g., Japan at 0.7%, Australia at 2.1%).
- Inflation stabilizes at low levels, decreasing in 2025F from current rates (e.g., India from 3.8% to 3.9%, Japan to 1.5%).
- Current account balances are projected to strengthen slightly amid global economic shifts and domestic policies.
Key Insights from Trade and Portfolio Strategies:
- Currency Trades: Recommended positions include long 10y IGBs in India, short SGD via EURSGD call spreads, and short CNH basket, citing favorable economic data and portfolio flows.
- Bond Allocations: Added China duration (-0.1 CTD) due to monetary easing; reduced CNY position (-1% U/W) amid policy signals; increased INR and IDR exposure (+1% each) based on oil prices and fundamentals.
- Overall, strategies emphasize tactical bets on EM volatility, discounted valuations in currencies like IDR, and potential inflows from India.
Broader EM Outlook: Factors driving caution include potential USD rebounds and global slowdowns, but opportunities exist in EM FX and bonds with select country exposures.