20130916-招商证券_香港_-Hong_Kong_Morning_Daily_11页_193kb

A-share Research Highlights Summary (CMS Research Center)

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of the A-share market, focusing on the automotive industry and the CMS foreign currency supply/demand indicator, along with stock performance updates and market data.

1. Automobile Industry - Impact of New Air Pollution Control Policy

Key Points:

• The State Council introduced the Air Pollution Prevention and Treatment Initiative on September 13, 2013, which includes six measures to tackle automobile-related pollution.
• These measures are expected to have a significant impact on the automotive sector.

Main Effects:

• Strengthening traffic management and eliminating "yellow label" vehicles will benefit the bus and coach industry.
  • Zhengzhou Yutong Bus (600066) is identified as the major beneficiary due to the expected replacement of 350,000 large and midsize buses by the end of 2015.
• Upgrading fuel quality and raising emission standards will benefit Weifu High-Technology Group (000581), a leader in tail gas treatment.
• Promotion of new energy vehicles will likely drive growth in this sector.
• Vehicle dismantling and inspection will also benefit from the policy.
• Control on ownership volume and increased usage costs are expected to hurt consumer demand.

Benefiting Companies:

• Weifu High-Technology Group (000581)
• BYD (002594)
• Anhui Jianghuai Automobile (600418)
• Zhengzhou Yutong Bus (600066)
• Anhui Ankai Automobile (000868)
• Miracle Automation Engineering (002009)
• China Automotive Engineering Research Institute (601965)

2. CMS Foreign Currency Supply/Demand Indicator

Key Points:

• The CMS foreign currency supply/demand index is introduced as a high-frequency coincident indicator to predict the flow of foreign exchange funds.
• It is based on an analytical framework that considers global and domestic factors.
• It can be observed daily and has a high goodness of fit with forecasted values.
• RMB exchange rates against other currencies reflect foreign currency supply-demand conditions in the managed floating exchange rate regime.
• The index is highly correlated with capital flows in Asian emerging markets, which are one to three months ahead of China's capital flows.

Additional Indicators:

• RMB appreciation expectations, HIBOR-LIBOR spread, HKD exchange rates, and other capital flow indicators are also referenced for analysis.

3. Stock Performance Update (Weekly)

Summary:

The document provides a weekly stock pool update, listing stock ratings, target prices, upside potential, EPS forecasts, and P/E ratios for various sectors.

Key Sectors Covered:

• Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods
• Metals & Mining
• Auto & Others
• Oil & Gas
• Consumer Discretionary
• Telecommunication
• Information Technology
• Port
• Shipping
• Alternative Energy
• Food & Beverage
• Machinery & Equipment
• Electricity

Notable Highlights:

• Stock ratings range from "Buy" to "Sell".
• Upside potential and performance over the past month are included for each stock.
• Analysts are assigned to each stock, providing insights and recommendations.

4. Market Data and Indices

Hong Kong Indices:

World Indices:

Asia-Pacific Indices:

5. Key Observations and Recommendations

• The foreign currency supply/demand indicator is a useful tool for analyzing international capital flows.
• Automotive companies such as BYD (002594) and Zhengzhou Yutong Bus (600066) are expected to benefit from the new policy.
• New energy vehicles and emission standards are key drivers for environmental compliance and market growth.
• Consumer demand may be negatively affected due to higher usage costs and ownership restrictions.
• Stock ratings and target prices are provided, indicating investment opportunities and risks across various sectors.

6. Conclusion

The document highlights the impact of the new air pollution control policy on the automotive industry, introduces a new foreign currency supply/demand indicator for capital flow analysis, and provides a weekly stock performance update with detailed ratings, target prices, and market data. It serves as a comprehensive research report for investors and analysts looking to assess market trends and make informed investment decisions.