世界银行-绿色建筑：新兴市场的可持续建设（英）-2023.10-148页_3mb

Summary of "Building Green: Sustainable Construction in Emerging Markets"

Overview

• Construction value chains account for approximately 40% of global CO₂ emissions, with emerging markets responsible for about 70% due to rapid urbanization and high emissions per unit of output. China is the largest contributor, followed by India and other middle-income countries.

Key Findings

• Emissions Trajectory: Without significant action, construction emissions are projected to increase by 13% by 2035. Emerging markets will account for most of this growth.

• Technological Solutions:

  • Available Technologies: Electrification of buildings, energy-efficient designs, LED lighting, district cooling systems, reflective coatings, and material efficiency/all substitution (e.g., timber or recycled aggregates).
  • Emerging Options: Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS), Green Hydrogen, Alternative Fuels (biomass), and carbon-negative materials.

• Technology Costs: Today’s low-abatement technologies (e.g., material efficiency) have minimal upfront costs and maximal abatement potential. High-potential (CCUS, Green Hydrogen) have high costs and are not commercially viable without substantial support until 2035+.

Financing and Policy Levers

• Market Failures: Green buildings often appear more expensive than brown alternatives due to externalized costs. Market failures include information asymmetry, high screening/monitoring costs, token carbon pricing, inadequate enforcement, and fragmented value chains.

• Investment Needs: Achieving an approximate 13% reduction in global construction emissions by 2035 requires $3.5 trillion in cumulative investment. Emerging markets would account for $1.5 trillion.

• Financial Tools:

  • Sustainability-Linked Debt: Aligns financial incentives with emission reduction targets.
  • Green Mortgages & REITs: Finance building-level initiatives.
  • Off-Balance-Sheet Financing: Energy-performance contracts facilitate pay-as-you-save investments.
  • Venture Capital & Blended Finance: Fuel innovative green building projects, especially in low-income economies.

• Mechanism Options for Policymakers:

  • Regulation: Green codes, energy performance standards, voluntary standards.
  • Carbon Pricing: Tax, cap, or trading standards—though costly and behaviorally challenging.
  • Fiscal Instruments: Grants, tax breaks, subsidized loans with concessional finance.
  • Strengthening Financial & Disclosure Systems: To reduce screening costs and greenwashing.

Role of Development Finance Institutions

• IFC and MDBs provided $4.4B in green construction funding by 2019. Concessional/ blended finance is critical for unlocking private capital, particularly in low-income countries.

Recommendations

• Short-Term: Deploy readily available, low-cost technologies. Regulatory standards and green mortgages lead the charge.
• Medium-Term: Enhance financial instruments and standards. Support piloting of nascent technologies in middle-income markets.
• Long-Term: Implement carbon pricing combined with fossil fuel phaseouts and distributed innovation systems.