CRS-美国对古巴农产品贸易的现状与展望（英文）-2021.5-16页_1mb

Summary of U.S. Agricultural Trade with Cuba: Current Limitations and Future Prospects

Introduction

The U.S. has imposed comprehensive economic sanctions on Cuba since the early 1960s, including a trade embargo, due to its authoritarian regime and human rights issues. While the Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act of 2000 (TSRA) allowed commercial agricultural exports to Cuba, it restricted U.S. government and private financing for such exports. As a result, U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba remain minimal, accounting for less than 1% of total U.S. agricultural exports. The U.S. does not import agricultural products from Cuba.

Background on U.S.-Cuba Agricultural Trade

Prior to the 1959 Cuban revolution, Cuba was a significant market for U.S. agricultural exports, ranking ninth in value and second in supplying U.S. imports. Key exports included rice, lard, pork, and wheat flour, while U.S. imports from Cuba included cane sugar, molasses, tobacco, and coffee. After the 1962 trade embargo, U.S.-Cuba agricultural trade declined sharply. In 2000, TSRA opened the door for limited agricultural exports but maintained restrictions on financing and support. The Obama Administration eased some restrictions in 2015 and 2016, allowing limited private financing and cooperation agreements, but agricultural exports remain subject to TSRA limitations.

Identified Barriers to Expand Agricultural Exports to Cuba

Key barriers to expanding U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba include:

• Prohibition on U.S. government support and private financing for agricultural exports.
• Cuba's limited foreign exchange reserves, which restrict its ability to purchase U.S. goods.
• Requirement that all U.S. imports must be channeled through the state trading corporation, Alimport.
• Restrictions on U.S. travel to Cuba, which limit foreign exchange inflows from tourism.
• Logistical and financial constraints under TSRA, such as limited payment terms (cash in advance or third-country financing).

U.S. Agricultural Exports to Cuba

U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba have remained low, with chicken meat accounting for over 90% of total exports in 2020. Exports peaked at $684 million in 2008 but have since declined, reaching $157 million in 2020. The EU (excluding the UK) was the largest supplier of agricultural imports to Cuba in 2020, followed by the U.S. and Brazil. The U.S. has focused on a few key commodities, including poultry, soybeans, corn, and planting seeds. In 2020, only one organization (Potatoes USA) utilized USDA export promotion funding.

Assessment of Cuban Market Potential

Several studies suggest that U.S. agricultural exports could expand significantly if trade restrictions were lifted. The U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) and USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) both highlight the potential for increased exports of grains, meat, and dairy products, citing Cuba's high dependency on imports and the U.S.'s logistical advantages. The USITC estimated that with restrictions removed, U.S. agricultural exports could reach $800 million annually within five years.

U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) Assessment

The USITC report highlighted the following:

• U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba declined from 2009 to 2014, while Cuba's total agricultural imports increased.
• The U.S. is competitive in exporting grains, meat, soybeans, and soybean products.
• U.S. logistical advantages (proximity to Cuba, lower shipping costs) could enhance price competitiveness.
• The Cuban government's requirement for all U.S. imports to go through Alimport remains a barrier.
• Cuba's desire to diversify its supplier base may limit U.S. export gains.
• Economic factors like purchasing power, foreign exchange availability, and import substitution policies also influence export potential.

USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Report

ERS identified Cuba's geographic proximity as a key advantage for U.S. agricultural exports. It also noted that the U.S. holds a smaller market share in Cuba compared to the Dominican Republic. ERS suggested that U.S. rice, dry beans, wheat, and dried milk could regain market share if credit terms were liberalized. Tourist-oriented food-service sales could also support higher-value products like cheese, yogurt, and premium cuts of meat.

Other Studies

• Texas A&M University estimated that U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba could reach $1.2 billion within five years if trade restrictions were lifted.
• States like Arkansas, Texas, Minnesota, Louisiana, Missouri, and Nebraska could benefit most from increased exports.
• Remittances from Cuban-Americans and Cuba's access to foreign exchange (from tourism, nickel, and other exports) are important factors.
• Concerns exist about potential competition for U.S. farmers in Florida, particularly in fresh produce, and the risk of invasive pests and diseases.

Cuba's Agricultural Exports

Cuba's agricultural exports are limited and concentrated in a few products. Between 2017 and 2019, the average annual value of global imports from Cuba was $710.8 million, with sugar (59%) and cigars (32%) being the top categories. Other notable exports include distilled spirits, tobacco, coffee, and some fruits and vegetables. The EU is the largest market for Cuban agricultural exports, followed by China, Canada, and Mexico.

Cuban Sugar Production and Exports

Cuba's sugar production and exports have declined significantly over the past two decades, with a 66% drop in production and over 80% in exports. The U.S. has seen a 157% increase in sugar imports during the same period. U.S. sugar imports from Cuba are restricted by laws that deny import quotas. If trade is normalized, both countries' sugar trade patterns may shift, but this would likely require a negotiated agreement.

Legislative Restrictions and Efforts to Ease Them

• S. 249 (117th Congress): Would lift the trade embargo and allow U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba.
• H.R. 1090 (117th Congress): Would continue existing restrictions and add new ones on software downloads from Cuba.
• H.R. 1898 and S. 1447 (116th Congress): Would have removed prohibitions on financing agricultural exports to Cuba, but were not enacted.
• The 2018 farm bill (P.L. 115-334) allowed USDA export promotion funding for certain activities in Cuba, but credit and financing restrictions remain in place.

Conclusion

Despite the potential for growth, U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba remain constrained by longstanding legislative and regulatory barriers. While studies suggest that lifting these restrictions could lead to substantial export increases, the Cuban government's preference for diversification and its reliance on state-controlled trade channels continue to limit U.S. market access. Any meaningful expansion would require a shift in policy and a negotiated agreement between the U.S. and Cuba.