2018拉美经济展望（英文版）_95页-3mb

LATAM CHARTBOOK Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive macroeconomic outlook for Latin America in January 2018, focusing on the economic performance and future projections of key countries: Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, and Chile. It also includes a global context analysis and detailed forecasts for various economic indicators.

Main Points and Key Information

Global Context

• Global Upturn: Emerging markets (EMs) are expected to benefit from a gradual easing of global monetary policy.
• USD Trends: The US dollar has peaked and is expected to weaken, which can improve sovereign ratings in EMs.
• Monetary Policy: A gradual removal of monetary accommodation is anticipated, with policy rate changes impacting EM economies differently.

Brazil: Summer is Coming

• Growth Recovery: Brazil's growth is showing signs of recovery in 2018.
• Inflation: Inflation has fallen below the target for the first time in many years, with underlying services inflation plummeting.
• Interest Rates: The market consensus forecast on interest rates is aligning with BNPP's views, indicating potential for rate cuts.
• Unemployment: The unemployment rate has peaked, with gradual improvement expected.
• Public Sector Credit: Public sector bank credit has been shrinking after years of growth.
• Debt Dynamics: Debt servicing is taking a smaller share of households’ disposable income.
• Fiscal Policy: The spending ceiling is a key factor in improving debt dynamics.
• Retirement Pensions: High pension spending due to demographic trends poses a challenge.
• Election Impact: The 2018 elections are expected to be competitive and could influence policy direction.

Mexico: Changing Gears

• Growth: Resilient growth with moderation expected in 2018.
• Inflation: Inflation has peaked, with core inflation moderating.
• Monetary Policy: Rate hikes are expected to slow economic growth.
• Fiscal Balance: Fiscal balances are improving, with progress in both revenues and spending.
• Oil Revenues: Oil revenues have declined, but non-oil revenues have increased post-2013 reforms.
• Elections: The 2018 presidential election is a competitive race, with implications for investment and policy.
• NAFTA Negotiations: Ongoing negotiations with the US and Canada are expected to be challenging, with several key issues yet to be resolved.

Colombia: Growth Drivers a Precious Commodity

• Growth: Economic growth has decelerated, especially with the decline in the oil sector.
• Inflation: Core inflation is above target but is moderating.
• Interest Rates: The central bank is expected to cut rates further.
• FDI: Despite a decline in FDI to oil and mining sectors, dynamism in other areas supports total FDI.
• Elections: The 2018 elections are expected to be a key event, with a legislative and presidential race.
• Political Preferences: Historically, Colombians have favored centre-right candidacies.

Argentina: In Recovery Mode

• Growth: Real GDP has expanded for a full year, with continued growth expected in 2018.
• Inflation: Annual inflation has remained fairly stable, but a downtrend is expected in 2018.
• Inflation Expectations: Inflation expectations remain above the official target, limiting room for rate cuts.
• Elections: Mid-term elections are expected to support investment in 2018.
• Fiscal Policy: Fiscal balance is improving, but tax reforms are needed to meet inflation targets.

Chile: Growth Acceleration in the Horizon

• Growth: Real GDP is expected to accelerate in 2018.
• Confidence: Consumer sentiment has increased slightly, while business confidence has lagged.
• Inflation: Non-tradable inflation is at the official target, but tradable inflation is trending upward.
• Monetary Policy: The central bank is likely to keep policy rates on hold for some time.

Key Charts and Data

• Election Calendar: A heavy calendar of elections in 2018, with implications for political and economic stability.
• Inflation and Interest Rates: Charts showing inflation trends and policy rate expectations for each country.
• FDI and Current Account Deficits: Analysis of FDI resilience and current account dynamics.
• Sovereign Ratings: Upgrades in Mexico and Argentina, with challenges for Brazil and Venezuela.
• Policy Rate Cycles: Trends in policy rate changes across Latin American countries.
• Fiscal Balance Projections: Fiscal balance forecasts for 2018 and beyond, indicating the need for reforms.

Summary of Forecasts

Conclusion

The document outlines the macroeconomic outlook for Latin America, highlighting recovery trends in Brazil and Mexico, moderate growth in Colombia, and Argentina's path to recovery. It also emphasizes the importance of political stability, fiscal reforms, and the impact of global monetary policy on regional economies. Chile is expected to see growth acceleration in the coming years, supported by improving confidence and stable inflation. Overall, the outlook is cautiously optimistic, with challenges in areas such as inflation control, fiscal sustainability, and structural reforms.