2018-2019全球经济展望（英文版）_222页_10mb

2018-2019 Global Economic Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2018-2019 global economic outlook highlights a shift in growth drivers and inflation dynamics, with a focus on the slowing of previous growth engines and the need for new sources of momentum. The global economy, while showing a broad-based recovery, is heavily reliant on commodity-producing countries, which have been a major contributor to the growth acceleration since 2017. This reliance is expected to wane, necessitating a rotation towards non-energy investment to maintain the current growth rate of 3.8%.

Main Growth Drivers and Their Decline

• 2017 Growth Engines: The main contributors to global growth in 2017 were the Chinese property market, US shale recovery, and the broader commodity rebound.
• Slowing Trends: These engines are now starting to slow, especially the Chinese property and US energy sectors.
• Expected Rotation: A significant shift to non-energy investment is required in 2018 to sustain the 3.8% growth rate.
• Commodity Impact: The commodity rebound accounted for nearly all the inflation normalization in developed markets, about 80% of the trade normalization, and 70% of the global growth acceleration.

Inflation Dynamics

• Not Dead, Just Sleeping: Inflation is not in permanent decline, with 20% of countries already closing their output gaps and showing wage and price pressures.
• US as Outlier: The US has shown transitory weakness in core inflation, but the number of countries with increasing core inflation is at its highest since 2011.
• Regional Exceptions: Central Europe and Japan are notable exceptions with rising wage growth and potential for substantial inflation pick-up.

Deviations from 2018 Consensus

• US and UK: Forecasted 20bp below consensus growth.
• Japan: Projected 70bp above consensus growth and inflation.
• Eurozone: 10bp above consensus growth.
• Brazil: 70bp above consensus growth.

Risks and Opportunities

Upside Risks

• Unexpected Tax Cuts in the US
• Reduction in Policy Uncertainty on both sides of the Atlantic

Downside Risks

• Failure of Non-Energy Investment to Pick Up
• Labour Market Slack Depletion
• Growth Disappointment in the US due to NAFTA collapse, tax reform failure, or retail bankruptcies

Key Economic Indicators (2017-2019)

Key Observations

• Survey Optimism vs. Data: Survey optimism in developed markets remains high, but it diverges from actual data, suggesting a potential disconnect between expectations and reality.
• Banks and Leverage: Global private-sector leverage is at a turning point, and banks are becoming more willing to lend, which could be a positive factor for investment.
• Commodity Impact: Commodity-producing countries are a key driver of growth and inflation, but their contributions are expected to diminish.
• China's Role: China's property market, which has been a major driver of global trade, is now slowing, leading to a decrease in import intensity and a potential softening in global export volumes.

Outlook

• Sustaining Growth: The global economy is expected to maintain growth close to current levels, but with significant changes in the composition of growth and inflation.
• Future Prospects: The US and other developed markets are expected to lag, while Japan and Brazil are seen as potential growth leaders.
• Policy and Investment: The success of 2018 will depend on whether non-energy investment can compensate for the slowdown in energy-related growth and whether policy uncertainty can be reduced to stimulate stronger investment responses.

Conclusion

The global economic outlook for 2018 and 2019 is marked by a transition from previous growth engines, with a focus on non-energy investment and the potential for inflation to pick up in certain regions. While the overall growth rate is expected to remain stable, the composition and sustainability of growth will be key factors to monitor.