2040年愿景_面向未来移动连接的频谱研究报告_71页_14mb

GSMA Vision 2040: Spectrum Needs for Future Mobile Connectivity

This report, published in November 2025, outlines the spectrum requirements for mobile connectivity from 2035 to 2040, a period expected to be defined by the deployment of 6G technology. Key findings and recommendations include:

Key Findings

1. 6G Deployment and Demand:

   • 6G is expected to become the predominant global mobile technology by 2040, with over 5 billion connections, accounting for approximately 50% of all mobile connections. Early deployment is likely in regions like China, South Korea, the US, Europe, and GCC states.
   • Mobile traffic will grow significantly, with global monthly traffic reaching 1.7–4 EB/month in the lowest growth scenario to nearly 4,000 EB/month in the highest scenario by 2040.
   • New use cases driven by artificial intelligence (AI), such as extended reality (XR), autonomous vehicles, and network sensing, will require higher spectral efficiencies, ultra-low latencies, and wider bandwidths.

2. Mid-Band Spectrum Requirements:

   • Governments and regulators need to allocate and assign additional mid-band spectrum (1–10 GHz) to meet growing demand. By 2030, an additional 1–3 GHz of mid-band spectrum beyond the currently allocated 1 GHz will be required globally.
   • For the period 2035–2040, an average of 2–3 GHz of mid-band spectrum must be available globally, with higher-demand countries requiring 2.5–4 GHz.
   • Key mid-band ranges under consideration include 3.8–4.2 GHz, 4.4–4.99 GHz, upper 6 GHz (6.425–7.125 GHz), and 7–8 GHz (7.125–8.4 GHz).

3. Regional Needs:

   • Highest demands are expected in Greater China, Developed Asia Pacific, North America, and the GCC states.
   • South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of Latin America will also require substantial additional spectrum due to rapid growth and higher urban densities.
   • By 2035–2040, very dense urban populations in countries like India, China, Nigeria, and Brazil will have mid-band spectrum requirements ranging from 2.1–3.7 GHz, depending on region.

4. Network Evolution:

   • 6G deployment will coexist with 5G, requiring multi-RAT spectrum sharing (MRSS) across existing and new frequency bands.
   • Spectrum efficiency improvements through AI integration, multi-user MIMO, and advanced modulation schemes will be critical.

Recommendations

1. Spectrum Allocation:

   • Regulators should prioritize the harmonization of key mid-band spectrum ranges by advancing the completion of discussions at events like WRC-27.
   • Focus on bands such as 6–8 GHz and 7–8 GHz to address the growing capacity demands required for 6G deployments.

2. Global Cooperation:

   • International alignment, operators, regulators, and policymakers must collaborate to plan for an inclusive and efficient spectrum rollout to support the transition to 6G.
   • Timelines for spectrum allocation should recognize the long lead times needed for standardization, equipment development, and network deployment.

3. Deployment Strategy:

   • Governments and operators must plan ahead to assign and activate spectrum well before 2035 to avoid network congestion in high-density urban areas by 2030.
   • Prioritize deployment of 6G in new and existing bands with MRSS implemented early to maximize shared spectrum efficiency.

Summary View

The GSMA vision for 2040 emphasizes unlocking the full power of connectivity to enable societal and industrial progress. Meeting the projected spectrum demands that includes AI-driven applications and 6G advancements requires global coordination and strategic planning to ensure that connectivity remains accessible, affordable, and inclusive for everyone, everywhere, by 2040 and beyond.