2040愿景_面向未来移动连接的频谱资源（2026版）_68页_10mb

Summary of GSMA Vision 2040: Spectrum for the Future of Mobile Connectivity

Core Content

The GSMA Vision 2040 report outlines the spectrum needs for the 6G era (2035–2040), emphasizing the importance of long-term planning and international harmonization to meet growing demand for mobile connectivity. The report serves as a critical reference for policymakers, regulators, and industry stakeholders to ensure the availability of necessary spectrum resources and support the transition to future technologies.

Main Findings

• Continued Growth in Mobile Traffic: Mobile network capacity demand is expected to grow by 15–20% from 2025 to 2030, driven by the migration to 5G and the rise of "power users." By 2040, global mobile traffic could reach 700–1,300 EB/month, with 60–95 GB/month per connection.

• 6G Deployment Timeline: 6G is expected to begin deployment around 2030, with large initial rollouts in countries like China, Japan, South Korea, the US, the GCC states, Europe, Vietnam, and India. By 2040, 6G connections could reach over 5 billion, accounting for about 50% of all mobile connections globally.

• Spectrum Requirements:

  • Global average mid-band spectrum needs for 2035–2040: 2–2.5 GHz
  • Higher-demand countries (top 50%) may require 2.4–3.3 GHz
  • Mid-band spectrum is crucial for meeting traffic demands, especially in dense urban areas, where traffic per square km is 9× greater than in other urban areas and 700× greater than in rural areas

• Traffic Distribution:

  • 83% of traffic is generated from 5% of the geographic area (high-density urban locations)
  • Urban areas will face capacity constraints by 2030 if mid-band spectrum remains at current levels

• Impact of AI and 6G:

  • AI-driven applications like generative AI video and extended reality (XR) will significantly increase traffic and require ultra-low latency (10 ms or below) and wider bandwidth
  • These demands will necessitate more spectrum and advanced network capabilities

Key Implications for Spectrum Policy

• Spectrum Allocation Priorities:

  • 3.8–4.2 GHz and upper 6 GHz (6.425–7.125 GHz) should be allocated to mobile by around 2030
  • 4.4–4.99 GHz and 7–8 GHz bands will be critical for long-term needs beyond 2030

• Harmonisation and Flexibility:

  • Spectrum harmonisation at WRC-27 will play a key role in enabling 6G deployment
  • Governments and regulators must ensure flexibility to adapt to emerging applications and technologies

• Need for Early Planning:

  • To avoid network congestion and maintain service quality, 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum should be available by 2030
  • Operators need sufficient lead time to deploy and optimise spectrum for 6G, which may take several years

• Spectrum Utilisation and Efficiency:

  • Network densification, AI-RAN, and multi-RAT spectrum sharing will help increase capacity
  • However, these alone will not be enough to meet projected demand growth

Regional Spectrum Needs Breakdown

Conclusion

The GSMA Vision 2040 highlights the urgent need for spectrum planning to support the transition to 6G and ensure future connectivity. The report underscores that mid-band spectrum will be the backbone of mobile networks in the 2030s, with harmonisation and early allocation being critical to avoid network congestion and support the next digital era. Policymakers and regulators must act now to secure the necessary spectrum and facilitate the development of 6G technologies.