世界银行-尼日利亚国家私营部门诊断（英）-2025_117页_4mb

Nigeria Country Private Sector Diagnostic Summary (May 2025)

Core Content

The Nigeria Country Private Sector Diagnostic (CPSD) is a report prepared by the World Bank Group to identify opportunities for private sector-led growth and investment. It outlines key challenges and policy recommendations across four sectors—Broadband/Fiber-Optic Network, Pharmaceutical Manufacturing, Solar Energy, and Cassava and Soybeans—with the goal of improving the business environment and attracting private investment to drive economic development.

The report emphasizes that while Nigeria has significant potential for growth due to its large and growing population, strong regional trade ties, and abundant natural resources, it faces structural and policy-related challenges that hinder private sector development. These include low tax-to-GDP ratios, high public debt, poor infrastructure, and inefficiencies in the regulatory and financial systems.

Main Points

1. Country Context and Business Environment

• Nigeria has a population projected to grow by 45% by 2045, offering a large market for goods and services.
• The private sector is a key driver of job creation, tax revenue, and investment.
• Nigeria's reliance on oil and gas exports makes it vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations.
• Tax-to-GDP ratio is among the lowest globally (3.8% in 2023), and public debt has increased significantly from 13.4% to 49.1% of GDP.
• Education spending is low, leading to limited skills development and a shortage of qualified workers for high-skill jobs.
• High interest rates and regulatory barriers have limited access to finance and discouraged private investment.

2. Sector Investment Opportunities

Broadband/Fiber-Optic Network

• Potential: Nigeria is Africa’s second-largest telecom market, but only 45% of the population has broadband subscriptions.
• Opportunity: Expanding fiber-optic infrastructure could unlock significant investment and support digitalization across sectors.
• Constraints: High and unpredictable right-of-way fees, limited access to wholesale infrastructure, and inadequate regulation.
• Recommendations:
  • Encourage states to comply with the National Economic Council’s right-of-way fee cap of N145 per linear meter.
  • Strengthen the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) to regulate the telecom market more effectively.
  • Designate telecom networks as critical national infrastructure to reduce vandalism and theft.
  • Implement financial mechanisms to reduce investment risk and attract private capital.

Pharmaceutical Manufacturing

• Potential: The sector has grown significantly, with pharmaceutical production doubling between 2018 and 2024.
• Opportunity: Expanding universal health coverage and rising demand for non-communicable disease treatments present new market opportunities.
• Constraints: Reliance on imported inputs, slow approval processes, and lack of skilled labor.
• Recommendations:
  • Digitize customs processes and align HS codes with international standards to reduce delays and costs.
  • Empower the Presidential Unlocking Healthcare Value Chain (PVAC) initiative to centralize pharmaceutical policy implementation.
  • Improve NAFDAC's capacity to process drug dossiers and plant approvals more efficiently.
  • Enhance the Essential Drugs List and use pooled procurement strategies to reduce costs and increase demand for local production.

Solar Energy

• Potential: Solar energy is a viable and cost-effective solution for 85 million Nigerians without reliable electricity.
• Opportunity: Solar can support economic growth by reducing reliance on diesel generators and improving energy access.
• Constraints: Weak governance in utilities, high import tariffs, and cumbersome customs processes.
• Recommendations:
  • Implement customs waiver procedures for imported solar equipment.
  • Increase the mini-grid permit cap from 1 MW to 5 MW to accelerate project deployment.
  • Strengthen the Distributed Renewable Energy Enhancement Facility (DREEF) to mobilize local institutional capital.
  • Improve the financial sustainability and governance of electricity distribution companies (DisCos).

Cassava and Soybeans

• Potential: Nigeria is the world’s top cassava producer and Africa’s second-largest soybean producer.
• Opportunity: Expanding production and processing can meet global and domestic demand and improve food security.
• Constraints: Poor infrastructure, high logistics costs, unreliable electricity, and limited access to finance and quality inputs.
• Recommendations:
  • Improve access to high-quality seeds and extension services.
  • Develop third-party certification systems to ensure input quality.
  • Promote contract farming models (in-grower/out-grower) to increase productivity and scale.
  • Improve land registration processes and support smallholder farmers with formal documentation and credit access.

Key Information

• Investment Estimates:

  • Broadband: Up to $4 billion in investment, creating 229,000 jobs.
  • Pharmaceuticals: Up to $1.6 billion in investment, creating 44,000 jobs.
  • Solar: Up to $8.5 billion in investment, creating 365,000 jobs.
  • Cassava and Soybeans: Up to $3.2 to $4 billion in investment for cassava, and $1.6 to $2 billion for soybeans, creating 275,200 to 344,000 jobs.

• Challenges:

  • Low tax-to-GDP ratio and high public debt.
  • Inadequate infrastructure and unreliable electricity supply.
  • Weak governance and regulatory inefficiencies.
  • Limited access to finance and skilled labor.
  • High logistics costs and informal levies.

• Recent Developments:

  • FX reforms have improved access to foreign exchange and reduced investment risks.
  • The government has simplified tax policies and initiated fiscal consolidation.
  • The equity market remains underdeveloped, with limited listings and liquidity.

Conclusion

To unlock its potential, Nigeria needs to address structural and policy-related barriers to private investment. The CPSD outlines a clear path for reforms in key sectors to enhance productivity, create jobs, and support sustainable growth. The success of these reforms will depend on effective implementation, regulatory clarity, and improved access to finance and infrastructure.