2026年6月全球移动报告_36页_3mb

Ericsson Mobility Report June 2026 Summary

Core Content

The Ericsson Mobility Report June 2026 outlines the transformative impact of AI, cloud and mobile technologies on global connectivity and service delivery. It highlights the rapid expansion of 5G, the emergence of AI-driven devices, and the development of 6G as the next generation of mobile networks.

Key Trends and Forecasts

• 5G Subscriptions:

  • Reached 3.1 billion in Q1 2026, with half of all mobile data traffic now carried over 5G.
  • Expected to reach 6.4 billion by the end of 2031, making up two-thirds of all mobile subscriptions.
  • 5G subscriptions are projected to overtake 4G by 2031, with 95% penetration in Western Europe and 92% in North America.
  • 5G SA subscriptions are expected to reach 3.9 billion in 2031, representing 60% of all 5G subscriptions.

• 6G on the Horizon:

  • Standardization discussions for 6G have begun.
  • Expected to bring integrated sensing and communication (ISAC), seamless satellite-terrestrial integration, and energy efficiency.
  • Commercial 6G services are anticipated to appear around 2030, with early adopters in the US, China, Japan, South Korea, and GCC countries.
  • 6G subscriptions are forecast to reach 180 million by the end of 2031.

• Satellite Broadband:

  • Expected to grow from 10 million at the end of 2025 to 33 million by 2031.
  • Satellite broadband is seen as a crucial component in delivering fixed broadband connectivity in a digital world.

• Cellular IoT:

  • Total cellular IoT connections reached 4.5 billion by the end of 2025, with a CAGR of 10% through 2031, approaching 8 billion.
  • Massive IoT (NB-IoT, Cat-M) continues to expand, while Broadband and Critical IoT (4G/5G) is expected to dominate.
  • eRedCap is set to be introduced in 2028, offering lower peak data rates and cost-effective solutions for low-cost IoT.

• Fixed Wireless Access (FWA):

  • FWA is expanding rapidly, with 70% of all FWA providers now offering the service over 5G.
  • Expected to reach 350 million connections by 2031, significantly outpacing satellite broadband.

Main Technologies and Use Cases

• AI-Driven Devices:

  • AI is shaping the future of mobile devices, including smartglasses and foldable smartphones.
  • Smartglasses shipments reached 10 million in 2025, with AI/audio glasses expected to dominate.
  • Foldable devices are becoming a flagship category, with "fold" models leading in AI differentiation and multitasking capabilities.

• Network Slicing:

  • Network slicing is becoming a key enabler for differentiated connectivity and enterprise services.
  • SoftBank Corp. conducted a 5G SA-based network slicing trial at a major sporting event, running five use cases with distinct quality parameters.
  • Service providers are leveraging UE Route Selection Policies (URSP) and L4S to create monetizable offerings.

• Uplink Demand:

  • Uplink demand is rising in AI-driven mobile networks, requiring optimized uplink performance and intelligent compute distribution.
  • The distributed compute model is starting in 5G and is expected to excel in 6G.

Regional Analysis

• Sub-Saharan Africa:

  • 5G subscriptions are expected to grow significantly, with 4G making up 46% and 5G reaching 28% by 2031.
  • Smartphone subscriptions are projected to rise to 960 million, increasing the share of total mobile subscriptions from 57% to 73%.

• Middle East and North Africa:

  • 5G subscriptions are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 30%, reaching 47% of all mobile subscriptions by 2031.
  • 5G FWA is becoming a complement to traditional broadband, with service providers focusing on network modernization and net-zero goals.

• South East Asia and Oceania:

  • 5G subscriptions are expected to reach 670 million by 2031.
  • FWA is emerging as a monetization opportunity, especially in fiber-constrained areas.
  • India, Nepal, and Bhutan are key markets, with 5G FWA helping bridge the digital divide.

• Central and Eastern Europe:

  • 5G adoption is progressing, with 80 million subscriptions by the end of 2025.
  • Private mobile networks are being deployed in manufacturing, education, and healthcare.

• Latin America:

  • 5G is gaining momentum, with 110 million subscriptions in 2025 and expected to reach 550 million by 2031.
  • 5G SA and 5G Advanced are anticipated to drive digital transformation.

• North East Asia:

  • 5G penetration reached 60% by the end of 2025, with China leading at 70% of mobile data traffic on 5G.
  • 5G SA is expanding, with RedCap upgrades and carrier aggregation enhancing performance.

• Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC):

  • 5G is expected to represent 88% of all mobile subscriptions by 2031.
  • FWA adoption is driven by high-speed alternatives to fixed broadband and smart-city ambitions.

• North America:

  • 5G subscriptions reached 370 million in 2025, with 79% penetration.
  • Expected to grow to 460 million by 2031, with FWA and differentiated connectivity driving innovation.

• Western Europe:

  • 5G subscriptions reached 300 million in 2025, with 54% penetration.
  • Expected to reach 540 million by 2031, with 95% penetration.
  • Spain launched the first commercial differentiated connectivity service in Q1 2026.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the convergence of AI, cloud, and mobile technologies, with 5G and 6G networks evolving to support new use cases and differentiated services. Cross-industry collaboration is seen as essential to unlock the full potential of next-generation connectivity. The future of mobile networks will be intelligent, inclusive, and resilient, driven by innovation in AI-enabled devices, network slicing, and FWA.