2025年欧亚移动经济报告_37页_2mb

The Mobile Economy Eurasia Summary

Overview

The GSMA Intelligence report highlights mobile's growing role in transforming Eurasia's economy, with mobile technologies contributing $220 billion to GDP in 2024, or 7.7% of GDP. By 2030, this is expected to rise to $270 billion, or 8.3% of GDP. 5G adoption is increasing, with 1% of connections in 2024 and projected to reach 40% by 2030. However, challenges remain in spectrum availability, energy efficiency, and bridging the digital divide.

Key Trends

• 5G Deployment: Eight operators in four countries (Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) have launched 5G services, leaning on NSA architectures. 5G is primarily used for enhanced mobile broadband in urban areas.
• Energy Efficiency: Operators are adopting renewable energy to reduce reliance on diesel in rural areas, improving operational sustainability.
• AI and Digital Transformation: Operators are leveraging AI for internal efficiencies (e.g., network optimization) and external applications, such as predictive maintenance and generative AI tools for local languages like Kazakh.

Economic Impact

Mobile's economic contribution includes direct GDP, employment (supporting ~620,000 jobs in 2024), and fiscal contributions (around $12 billion in 2024). By 2030, it could add $270 billion, driven by productivity gains and digital transformation across sectors like manufacturing, finance, and public administration.

Technology and Innovation

• Subscriber Trends: 4G domination is expected to peak in 2025 before declining, with 5G sharing projected at 40% by 2030.
• Connectivity Gaps: In 2024, 164 million people used mobile internet, but the urban-rural digital divide persists, with adoption rates under 25% in Russia versus over 50% in Tajikistan.
• FWA and Cloud Gaming: 5G FWA is expanding for broadband access, and cloud gaming demand is rising due to low latency.

Policy and Enablers

• Spectrum Allocation: Mid and low bands are critical for expanding coverage and capacity. The 6 GHz band post-WRC-23 opens opportunities for mobile networks.
• Coverage Obligations: Governments should balance licensing with incentives to incentivize rural investments, avoiding unrealistic mandates.
• Sustainability Focus: Operators are integrating renewable energy and energy-efficient practices, supported by GSMA initiatives like the Energy Efficiency Benchmarking project.

Consumer and Enterprise Insights

• Digital Engagement: Consumers are increasingly using mobile for entertainment, video streaming, and fintech services. Super apps (e.g., Hambi) are emerging, bundling AI-driven services.
• Digital Literacy: Operators support initiatives like AI training and helplines to bridge the digital divide and promote inclusion.

Forecasts for 2030

Eurasia's GDP contribution from mobile is set to rise to $270 billion, with 5G and AI leading innovation. Addressing policy and infrastructure gaps will be key to sustained growth.