20230514-华创证券-钢铁行业周报_需求有所回暖_继续关注下游需求确定性高方向_12页_1mb

报告摘要

Demand and Prices: Steel prices declined for key varieties due to lingering demand weakness, but post-holiday consumption showed signs of recovery, with rebar and wire rod demand rising by 18% and 19% week-over-week. Compared to pre-pandemic levels, demand is partially restored, though below peak years.
Production and Inventory: Weekly steel output decreased significantly, while inventory levels remain low. This, combined with reports of enterprise profitability (e.g., 238% of 247 survey samples in profit), suggests supply-side pressures.
Overall Outlook: The industry faces demand uncertainty, but infrastructure investments like those in Chongqing could provide medium-term demand growth.

Policy and Tariffs: Turkey increased steel import tariffs, potentially affecting global trade flows. China notified of rough steel output cuts in Q3 and Q4 due to climate policies, aiming to tighten supply.
Economic Factors: U.S. steel exports rose, indicating broader market dynamics, though domestic demand in China showed seasonal improvement.

Sector Focus: Maintain "Buy" rating due to valuation at relative lows. Prioritize companies with high demand certainty (e.g., HR steel producers like HRIS, NBSC, etc.) and exposure to water conservancy investments (e.g., emerging cast iron pipe leaders). Also, consider value plays in state-owned steel giants under potential restructuring.
Valuation: Steel sector PE ratios are at low levels, making key players attractive amid expected supply reductions and national policy support.