2025-05-19-Jefferies-啤酒经销商调查2025年及以后_压力增大_前景恶化_35页_3mb

报告摘要

Beer Distributor Survey: 2025 & Beyond

• Key Findings: Distributor outlooks worsened due to macro and political pressures. Beer volume expected to decline -2% in 2025 and -1.0% long-term. Premiumization offset by craft, seltzer, and mainstream beer declines.

• Leading Companies: Sam Adams (SAM) best positioned for trends. Constellation Brands (STZ) volumes to grow +1% in 2025. AB InBev (ABI) outlook worsens but strategy sound.

• Market Trends: Beer share unchanged in 2025 per 55% of distributors, but 40% fear losses. Non-alcoholic growth (+6%) leads traditional beer, while seltzer declines accelerate.

Changes and Commentary

• Beer Volume Trends: Spring depletion trends improved slightly vs. prior quarter. Short-term expectations lowered.

• Promotional Activity: Promotions will be more competitive, reflecting economic pressures.

Company-Specific Updates

• Boston Beer (SAM): $260 price target. Growth driven by Twisted Tea and Sun Cruiser incremental gains. Porter’s five forces analysis highlights competitive landscape.

• Mexican Imports (STZ): 7.3% YoY slump in March due to immigration issues; outlook below expectations.

• Anheuser-Busch (ABI): $70 price target; Bud family losses offset by Ultra growth.

• Molson Coors (TAP): $61 price target; margins restored but competitive environment tough.

Tilry Analysis

• Price targets range from $1.50 to $5.00 reflecting confusion