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Capital Markets Dashboard - May 2025 Update

Key Observations

• Exchange Volumes: Markets are experiencing a slowdown following record April volumes, with CME and ICE volumes tracking -12% y/y on average. Financials volumes provide modest offset, but overall Exchange volumes are below year-over-year expectations, potentially leading to negative EPS revisions.
• Fixed Income Flows: Fixed income flows have shown strength, with a recovery in issuance, primarily driven by ETFs (+$23bn in May). There is a tilt toward longer-term products and ETFs, helping offset broad market deceleration.
• Sponsor-Backed M&A: Volumes remain consistent with 2024 levels, with $41bn deployed in April (below March's $70bn). Realization volumes decelerated, and early May shows further moderation.
• Market Performance: Key indices show mixed results, with equity markets generally positive and fixed income flat, contributing +5.3% to AUM for equity books. VIX and compression trading volumes are down, while retail and "buy the dip" strategies support resilience in some sectors.
• ** flows and Strategy Insights:** Fixed income funds had net outflows of -$30bn QTD, but certain traditional asset managers like BlackRock (BLK) showed strong inflows (+$19bn). Active strategies vary by asset class, with some outperforming benchmarks.
• Notable Metrics: Compression trading ADV declined by -16% y/y, and specialized products like TW SEF volumes grew by 13% y/y, indicating selective momentum in specific markets. Global deal activity slowed, impacting sponsor M&A volumes.

Summary of Market Dynamics

• Equity and Liquidity: Exchange volumes are decelerating, affecting EPS estimates negatively, while fixed income gains trim fixed income volatility. High-yield and distressed debt flows saw mixed trends, with some managers showing resiliencem in recovery.