期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2012no1_36页_1mb

NBER Public Economics Research Summary (2012)

Core Content

The NBER's Program on Public Economics (PE) has undergone significant transformation in research focus, methodology, and topics from 1980 to 2010. This report provides a statistical and qualitative overview of these changes, highlighting the evolution of public economics research in the United States.

Main Trends in Research

Statistical Perspective

• Growth in Research Volume: The number of Public Economics Working Papers increased from 55 in 1990 to 183 in 2010.
• Share of NBER Working Papers: The share of PE papers in the total NBER corpus rose from 13.8% in 1990 to 23.0% in 2000, then slightly declined to 17.9% in 2010.
• Methodology Shift: The proportion of empirical papers in the PE program increased from 29.1% in 1990 to 52.5% in 2010, while theoretical papers decreased from 38.2% to 30.1%. The use of "both" empirical and theoretical methods also declined.
• Topic Diversification: Topics related to tax and spending decreased from 63.6% to 15.3% in 1990 to 2010, while "other" topics (e.g., education, regulation) increased from 30.9% to 62.8%.
• Taxation Focus: Individual taxation papers increased significantly, from 47.1% in 1990 to 88.9% in 2010, while corporate taxation decreased from 41.2% to 7.4%.

Emerging Themes and Methodologies

Connecting Theory to Evidence

• Empirical Impact Studies: Researchers have increasingly focused on estimating the causal impacts of tax and expenditure programs on economic behavior, such as labor supply, savings, and healthcare expenditures.
• Structural Models: These models are calibrated to empirical data to make quantitative predictions about policy effects.
• Sufficient Statistic Approach: This method derives policy formulas from theoretical models using reduced-form parameters estimated from empirical work, reducing reliance on specific behavioral models.

Behavioral Public Finance

• Incorporation of Behavioral Insights: Public economics has integrated behavioral economics into its analysis, recognizing that individuals may not always act rationally.
• Welfare Analysis Challenges: Traditional welfare analysis tools are being adapted to account for non-optimizing behavior, including the use of revealed preference and methods that acknowledge choice inconsistencies.
• Key Findings: Behavioral factors such as framing, information, and default options significantly influence policy outcomes, especially in retirement savings and tax compliance.

New Dynamic Public Finance

• Dynamic Models: Research on dynamic macroeconomic models has influenced public economics, particularly in analyzing the long-term impacts of policies.
• Capital Taxation: Studies suggest that capital taxation may still play a role in dynamic settings, contrary to some classical assumptions.
• Unemployment Benefits: In the absence of liquidity constraints, the optimal path of unemployment benefits is constant over time.

Lab and Field Experiments

• Experimental Methods: Researchers use both lab and field experiments to analyze economic decision-making, especially in areas like public goods, tax behavior, and charitable giving.
• Field Experiments: These are used to study real-world impacts, including voter turnout, health insurance choices, and the effectiveness of social insurance programs.
• Integration with Theory: Experimental findings are increasingly integrated with theoretical models to refine policy analysis.

Social Insurance Research

• Major Programs: Research has focused on major social insurance programs such as Social Security, Disability Insurance, Medicare, Medicaid, and Unemployment Insurance.
• Policy Impacts: These programs have significant effects on labor supply, savings, and healthcare utilization.
• Selection in Insurance Markets: Studies have examined the role of selection in private insurance markets, including both adverse and advantageous selection.
• Empirical Strategies: Researchers use quasi-experimental designs, such as discontinuities in eligibility or natural experiments, to evaluate the effectiveness of social insurance.

Research Influences from Macroeconomic Events

• Financial Crisis Impact: The PE program has responded rapidly to macroeconomic events, including the financial crisis, by analyzing their effects on public policy.
• Fiscal Multiplier Studies: Research has focused on the fiscal multiplier, with empirical and theoretical analyses of its nature, mechanism, and magnitude.
• Quasi-Experimental Methods: These methods have been used to estimate the effects of policy changes, such as the impact of the "Cash for Clunkers" program on car sales.

Key Areas of Future Research

• Behavioral Integration: Continued integration of behavioral insights into public economics research.
• Dynamic Models: Further development and application of dynamic models to better understand long-term policy impacts.
• Field Experiments: Expansion of field experiments to address complex policy questions.
• Social Insurance: More detailed analysis of the economic rationale and impacts of major social insurance programs.

Conclusion

The NBER's Public Economics Program has evolved significantly over the past three decades, reflecting broader trends in economics. While the focus has shifted from taxation to a broader range of topics, including government spending, education, and regulation, the fundamental goal remains to provide rigorous economic analysis that informs public policy. The integration of empirical methods, behavioral insights, and dynamic modeling has enhanced the program's ability to assess policy impacts and guide future research directions.