国家经济和社会研究所-英国经济因增长缓慢和高通胀而陷入困境（英）-2023.5-76页_2mb

National Institute UK Economic Outlook: Spring 2023 Summary

Introduction

The report analyzes the UK economy's outlook in Spring 2023, highlighting ongoing challenges from supply-side shocks, including the financial crisis, Brexit, COVID-19, and the Ukraine invasion. It emphasizes that these factors have constrained productive capacity, leading to high inflation and subdued growth despite some policy responses.

Key Findings

• Economic Growth: UK GDP growth is expected to remain sluggish at near-zero in 2023, with low single-digit growth in 2024. Anaemic output stems from persistent supply constraints and the cost-of-living crisis.
• Inflation: Inflation remains in double digits (e.g., 10.1% in March 2023) and high core inflation, with expectations for a gradual decline to near the 2% target by late 2025. Inflation persistence is driven by energy prices, food costs, and wage growth.
• Unemployment: The unemployment rate is expected to rise slowly, peaking around 4.6% in early 2024, as output growth remains weak despite labor shortages.
• Household Finances: Real disposable income is falling due to inflation outpacing nominal earnings, exacerbating hardship for lower-income households. Savings rates are declining, and consumption growth is projected to be negative in 2023 and 2024.
• Public Finances: Fiscal policy faces challenges, with public debt remaining high. The budget extended energy support and childcare reforms, but public investment remains low, averaging around 2% of GDP since 2019.

Policy Analysis

• Fiscal Policy: Measures include extending the Energy Price Guarantee, increasing minimum wages, and reforms to childcare and labor supply to boost potential output. However, public investment is insufficient to address long-term productivity issues.
• Monetary Policy: The Bank of England has aggressively raised interest rates (Bank Rate to 4.25% by Spring 2023) to combat inflation, but risks include financial market volatility and prolonged tightening. Quantitative tightening is ongoing but costly.

Risks and Challenges

• Economic Risks: GDP risks are balanced, with upside from consumer confidence but downside from potential recession. Inflation risks are elevated due to global uncertainties, including wage-price spirals and energy prices.
• Regional Disparities: Devolved nations and English regions show varied performance, with London and the South East leading, while regions like the Midlands lag due to structural issues and Brexit trade restrictions.
• Distributional Issues: Low-income households are disproportionately affected by inflation, and targeted support is needed to mitigate hardship.

Conclusions

The UK economy is navigating high inflation and low growth, with policy needing to focus on targeted relief, boosting productivity, and increasing public investment to address long-term challenges and regional inequalities.