英国国家经济和社会研究所-英国国家研究院经济展望-2025年春季（英）_65页_2mb

National Institute UK Economic Outlook – Spring 2025 Summary

Overview

This Outlook highlights a fragile UK economic outlook, dominated by subdued growth and persistently high inflation due to domestic cost pressures, weak business confidence, and external tariffs. Forecasts indicate slower GDP growth than previously projected, with inflation gradually returning toward the target but facing uncertainties from tariffs, wage growth, and fiscal policy.

Macroeconomic Outlook

• GDP Growth: Forecast at 1.2% for 2025 and 1.5% for 2026, down from Winter Outlook due to heightened cost pressures and global uncertainty. Growth is supported by fiscal stimulus but weighed down by tariffs and weak private demand.
• Inflation: Expected to average 3.3% in 2025, driven by regulated price increases, wage growth, and energy costs. Inflation is projected to ease over the next three years, but persistent wage inflation poses risks.
• Interest Rates: Anticipates two 25 basis point cuts in 2025 and a third in 2026, reflecting the Bank of England's focus on long-term price stability despite short-run cost pressures.

Economic Policy

• Fiscal Policy: The government faces a deficit shortfall of £57 billion under the Stability Rule in 2029-30, with limited fiscal headroom eroding due to weaker growth and tax receipts. Potential tax rises loom despite fiscal tightening measures announced in the Spring Statement.
• Monetary Policy: The Bank of England is expected to maintain caution amid high inflation expectations and wage growth. Inflation risks remain elevated, complicating the path for monetary easing.

Regional and Distributional Analysis

• Regional Vulnerability: Tariffs disproportionately affect regions exporting goods to the US, such as the West Midlands, East of England, and Wales. Regional inequalities persist, with London and parts of the South East facing acute housing affordability issues.
• Distributional Impacts: Low-income households experience the greatest strain from cost pressures, declining disposable incomes, and welfare reforms. Businesses, particularly SMEs, face challenges from increased labor costs and tariffs, hindering investment and employment.

Key Takeaways

The UK economy requires cohesive policy leadership, credible fiscal rules, and targeted investments to address regional disparities and sustain growth amidst global uncertainties. The outlook underscores the need for transformative strategies to enhance long-term economic resilience.