2025-05-29-Jefferies-新兴债券动态与制度变化_22页_628kb

US Trade and Tariff Developments: Recent tariff threats have been reduced to a cycle, with potential for a 10% universal tariff after negotiations. The US Court of International Trade blocked most global tariffs, but this is viewed by investors as not impacting the long-term trend. The passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) focuses on tax cuts and deregulation, raising concerns about a $3.4 trillion debt increase over ten years, potentially financed by tariffs or revenue hikes.

Equity Market Dynamics: Tax cut initiatives have bolstered equity sentiment, but worries persist about fiscal sustainability. US tariffs may generate only $350 billion in revenue, undermining plans for fiscal credibility, as the $10% tariff goal under Trump remains debated.

Japan Bond Market: Inflation is rising, with core CPI reaching multi-year highs, leading to bond sell-offs. Demand for long-dated JGBs (e.g., 40-year bonds) has weakened due to liability duration mismatches and mark-to-market losses. Yields on 30-year and 40-year bonds hit record highs, steepening the yield curve to unprecedented levels compared to other developed markets. BoJ tightening expectations rise, with OIS data discounting further rate hikes.

Global Bond and Currency Trends: Emerging market local-currency bonds outperform G7 government bonds, driven by supply concerns and regime changes from the Bretton Woods era. Asian currencies, including the Hong Kong dollar, show potential for appreciation if US interest rates remain high while China's rates are lower. The renminbi and Singapore dollar may strengthen relative to the US dollar, supported by currency dynamics.

Other Notes: UK tax reforms have prompted record applications for citizenship by Americans, exacerbating challenges for the British government, as wealthy individuals relocate to avoid higher taxes. Bond vigilance risks escalate in the US Treasury market, with possible market upsets if yields breach 5% on the 10-year bond.