20250918-华泰期货-新能源及有色金属日报_静待降息落地_镍不锈钢价格震荡走低_8页_1mb

报告摘要

Nickel prices reversed slightly on the day, closing at 121,790 yuan/ton, down 0.81% from the previous day due to a cautious market attitude towards the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cut (expected 25 basis points), leading to capital withdrawal from commodity markets.
USD strength (reaching 96.7344) contributed to lower prices, particularly for dollar-denominated commodities like LME nickel.
Downstream iron plants maintained profit losses, keeping nickel mine purchasing conservative.
Upstream, nickel demand in Indonesia showed slight price increases, with persistent price spreads (+23-24), but excess supply conditions limit significant upside.
Short-term strategy: Ongoing震荡, with intervals for short positions.
Key risks: Domestic policies, Indonesia regulatory changes, and new US administration policies.

Stainless steel prices held steady in the near range, with minimal changes (open and close at 12,935 yuan/ton), influenced by a weakening期货 market and sluggish real-world demand.
Downstream participants remained cautious or观望 due to risky buying behaviors, with markets in Wuxi and Foshen showing slight adjustments but spotty trading.
Inventory depletion (nine consecutive weeks) suggests a possible rebound, but ongoing demand concerns from slower consumption during the peak season.
Overall outlook: Neutral, with no aggressive strategies recommended.
Key risks: Economic/realestate policy shifts in China, Indonesia regulatory updates, and US policy changes.

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