20260824-招银国际-中国宏桥-01378.HK-Core_net_profit_+10_YoY_in_1H26_10页_1mb

报告摘要

China Hongqiao (1378 HK) Summary

Core Content

China Hongqiao (1378 HK) reported a 39% YoY increase in net profit to RMB17.2bn in 1H26, which aligns with its previously announced profit alert. Excluding the impact of fair value changes in CB, the core net profit grew by 10% YoY to RMB16.3bn. This growth was driven by ASP-driven expansion in the aluminum alloy products segment, which saw a 15% YoY revenue increase to RMB59.6bn. The unit gross profit in this segment rose 81% YoY to ~RMB8.2k/t, supported by a 2.4% YoY decrease in unit cost and a 19% YoY increase in ASP to RMB21.2k/t.

However, the alumina segment experienced a 22% YoY revenue decline to RMB16bn, with a 28% YoY drop in ASP to RMB2.33k/t, despite a 6% YoY cost reduction, leading to an 84% YoY decline in unit gross profit to RMB146/t. The aluminum fabrication products segment showed strong growth, with 41% YoY revenue increase to RMB16.7bn, and gross margin expanded by 8.9ppts YoY to 32.2%.

The company has revised its 2026E–2028E net profit forecasts down by 6–7%, due to lower assumptions on alumina margins and higher expenses. The current valuation of 5.8x–6.4x 2026E–2027E P/E is seen as providing buffer against potential ASP decline.

Key Financial Highlights

1H26 Revenue: RMB87.5bn (+8.0% YoY)
1H26 Gross Profit: RMB27.5bn (+32.3% YoY)
1H26 Net Profit: RMB17.2bn (+39.2% YoY)
1H26 Recurring Net Profit: RMB16.3bn (+9.6% YoY)
Gross Margin (1H26): 31.5% (+5.8ppts YoY)
Net Margin (1H26): 21.8% (+5.1ppts YoY)
Effective Tax Rate (1H26): 24.0% (+0.3ppts YoY)

Revenue Breakdown (1H26)

Aluminum Alloy Products: RMB59.6bn (+15% YoY)
Alumina: RMB16.1bn (-22% YoY)
Aluminum Fabrication Products: RMB11.4bn (+40.8% YoY)
Steam: RMB0.5bn (+9.1% YoY)

Key Risks

Unexpected removal of capacity cap in China
Faster-than-expected overseas capacity ramp-up
Global economic slowdown
Sharp increases in input costs such as bauxite and coal

Operating Assumptions

Revenue Growth (2026E–2028E):
- Aluminum Alloy Products: 16.3%–15.6%
- Alumina: -29.6%–-28.6%
- Aluminum Fabrication Products: 19.2%–18.6%
- Steam: 4.2%–4.2%
Unit Cost Changes:
- Aluminum Alloy Products: -3.9%–-3.9%
- Alumina: -9.1%–-9.1%
- Aluminum Fabrication Products: -3.5%–-3.5%
Unit Gross Profit:
- Aluminum Alloy Products: RMB8.4k/t (+62.5% YoY)
- Alumina: RMB124/t (-80.7% YoY)
- Aluminum Fabrication Products: RMB5.3k/t (+39.5% YoY)

Valuation and Target Price

Target Price: HK$39.00 (down from HK$45.00)
P/E Ratio (2026E): 5.9x (down from 11x)
P/B Ratio (2026E): 1.3x
Current Price: HK$23.18
12-Month Price Performance:
- Absolute: -36.3%
- Relative: -35.3%

Shareholding Structure

Shipping Trust Company (Zhang's family): 61.5%
CITIC Group: 5.7%
Source: HKEx

Earnings Sensitivity

Aluminum ASP Increase (5%):
- 2026E Net Profit: +RMB26,475–+RMB43,039
Coal Cost Increase (5%):
- 2026E Net Profit: +RMB25,389–+RMB41,953
External Tariff Increase (5%):
- 2026E Net Profit: +RMB25,389–+RMB41,953
Bauxite Cost Increase (5%):
- 2026E Net Profit: +RMB31,760–+RMB34,834

Financial Summary (2023A–2028E)

Metric	2023A	2024A	2025A	2026E	2027E	2028E
Revenue	133,624	156,169	162,354	171,381	165,591	162,033
Gross Profit	20,955	42,163	41,505	55,622	50,469	46,786
Adjusted Net Profit	11,461	24,565	26,418	33,671	31,047	28,743
Total Assets	200,320	229,165	245,379	272,042	280,709	298,543
Total Liabilities	94,064	110,552	103,669	108,366	103,118	107,995
Total Shareholders Equity	92,245	107,800	132,593	151,228	162,073	172,187

Cash Flow Summary

Net Cash from Operations (2026E): RMB46.7bn
Net Cash from Investing (2026E): -RMB9.3bn
Net Cash from Financing (2026E): -RMB19.2bn
Cash at the End of the Year (2026E): RMB69.4bn

Growth Projections

Metric	2023A	2024A	2025A	2026E	2027E	2028E
Revenue Growth	1.5%	16.9%	4.0%	5.6%	-3.4%	-2.1%
Gross Profit Growth	14.9%	101.2%	-1.6%	34.0%	-9.3%	-7.3%
EBITDA Growth	12.7%	72.5%	3.1%	29.9%	-6.6%	-6.4%
EBIT Growth	17.1%	104.7%	3.0%	34.3%	-7.9%	-7.8%
Adj. Net Profit Growth	31.7%	114.3%	7.5%	27.5%	-7.8%	-7.4%

Conclusion

China Hongqiao's performance in 1H26 reflects strong growth in the aluminum alloy products segment, driven by higher ASP and reduced unit costs, while the alumina segment faced significant declines in revenue and unit gross profit. The company's revised target price and valuation suggest a more conservative outlook, factoring in potential supply increases and input cost rises. The analysis highlights key risks and sensitivity to external factors, such as aluminum prices, coal costs, and tariffs, which could impact future earnings. The overall financial health remains robust, with positive cash flow and growing shareholder equity, but the outlook for 2027E and 2028E is more cautious due to economic and supply-side uncertainties.