20150730-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_O_il___Gas_11页_781kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Market Summary
Core Content
-
Oil Prices:
- Brent Crude Oil increased by 0.2% to USD53.38 per barrel.
- WTI Crude Oil rose by 1.7% to USD48.79 per barrel.
- The price changes reflect a recovery from multi-month lows, driven by U.S. crude stockpile draw expectations.
- The DJI and S&P 500 indices showed positive changes of 0.7% each, while the USD-CNY exchange rate remained stable.
-
Market Sentiment:
- Oil prices declined earlier due to concerns over weak demand and a global supply glut.
- A resurgent dollar and a stock market drop in China added pressure on oil prices.
- The LNG Northeast Asia CFR increased slightly, with a 0.3% rise.
Main Points
-
PetroVietnam Drilling:
- Initiated as a BUY with a target price (TP) of VND90,530.
- Share price has dropped by 52% from the peak in September 2014.
- The company is a key drilling contractor in Vietnam, with 60% of profits from drilling and 38% from related services.
- Recommended for investors seeking exposure to the Vietnamese O&G sector.
-
Malaysia Oil & Gas:
- Iran reached an agreement with the P5+1, potentially adding 200k-700k bpd to the market.
- The report suggests a NEUTRAL stance, with a focus on production operators.
- Preferred BUYs include Yinson, Bumi Armada, Dialog, and KNM.
-
SapuraKencana Petroleum:
- Secured a USD273 million turnkey job with ONGC.
- The deal has a small impact on earnings and is not a re-rating catalyst.
- Maintained HOLD with a target price of MYR2.80.
-
Petronas Chemicals:
- Market conditions have returned to normal.
- Petrochemical ASPs are down 25% year-to-date in USD and 13% in MYR.
- A weaker MYR against USD could offer upside potential.
- Maintained HOLD with a raised target price to MYR6.60.
Key Information
-
China Oil Sector Acquisitions:
- A lull in acquisitions due to uncertainties and depressed oil prices.
- Mainland firms made USD1.99 billion in outbound acquisitions in H1 2015, down 10.6% from the previous year.
-
Xebec's Landfill Gas Project:
- Xebec started a landfill gas to CNG upgrading system in Anshan, China.
- The system uses fast-cycle PSA technology and is integrated in Shanghai.
- The upgraded gas will power taxis in the region.
-
China's Shift to African Oil:
- Expected to increase imports from Africa by 41% in July.
- This shift may lead to a price cut by Saudi Arabia.
Asian Oil & Gas Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (29-Jul) | Target Price | Market Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE (2015E) | P/BV (2015E) | Yield (2015E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 7.83 | 8.30 | 325.3 | 123.0 | 22.7 | 14.2 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 5.90 | 7.70 | 115.5 | 106.9 | 16.3 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 3.0 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 9.66 | 16.80 | 55.6 | 99.1 | 14.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 269.8 | NR | 36.1 | 19.6 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 13.3 | 1.2 | 3.7 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 996.0 | NR | 50.5 | 62.3 | 13.4 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 11.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 167.2 | 198.00 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 11.7 | 0.5 | 5.4 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 949.3 | NR | 10.7 | 20.9 | 21.9 | 13.3 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 15.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 930.6 | NR | 4.9 | 18.8 | 23.8 | 14.6 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 7.50 | 11.25 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 17.1 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | Buy | 3.41 | 4.75 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 11.6 | 0.7 | 2.9 |
| PTT Global Chemical | PTTGC TB | Buy | 60.8 | 87.00 | 7.8 | 24.8 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 12.2 | 3.2 | 3.8 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | Buy | 317.0 | 395.00 | 25.9 | 46.6 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 16.7 | 3.9 | 3.0 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 47.3 | 65.00 | 2.8 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 13.6 | 1.0 | 5.4 |
Asian Oil-Service Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (29-Jul) | Target Price | Market Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE (2015E) | P/BV (2015E) | Yield (2015E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AlamMaritim | AMRB MK | Sell | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Barakah Offshore | BARAKAH MK | Buy | 0.98 | 1.15 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 18.1 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 1.07 | 1.60 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 15.1 | 13.2 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| SapuraKencana | SAKP MK | Hold | 2.33 | 2.80 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 11.5 | 15.5 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 11.0 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | Buy | 3.06 | 4.35 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 22.2 | 19.7 | 15.1 | 15.6 | 13.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
Analyst Contact
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648 | howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 2266232632 | jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137 | pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 22978688 | tliaw@maybank-ib.com
- Michael Bengson (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840 | micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6231 5842 | yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400 | sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888×8082 | chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 4 44 555 888 x 8087 | binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
