20151029-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_O_il___Gas_11页_786kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content
The document provides an overview of the oil and gas market trends and company-specific updates as of late October 2015. It includes price movements, company news, and analyst reports on various oil and gas firms across different regions, such as China, India, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Additionally, it features a table of valuations for both oil and gas companies and oil-service firms.
Key Market Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Increased by 4.8% to USD49.05/b.
- WTI Crude Oil: Increased by 6.3% to USD45.94/b.
- Singapore Cracking Margins: Rose sharply to $5.49/b, supported by light distillate cracks.
- Gasoline Crack: Strengthened by $2.53/b to $12.07/b.
- USD-CNY Exchange Rate: Rose by 0.1% to 6.36.
Company Updates
CNOOC Ltd
- Third-quarter revenue: Fell by 32.3% due to low oil prices.
- Average realized oil price: Declined by 51% to $48.84/b.
- Capital Expenditure (CAPEX): Decreased by 44.0% year-on-year to ~$2.32 billion.
- Net production: Rose by 23.8% to 127.5 million barrels of oil equivalent.
- Dividend: Remained unchanged from 2014, implying a ~75% payout.
- Maybank KE Rating: Buy with a target price (TP) lowered by 3% to HKD 11.3.
UMW Oil & Gas
- Naga 7 secured a job from PCSB.
- 9-month contract: Starts in 4Q15, 6 months ahead of expectations.
- Dividend per employee (DCR): Similar to current market rates at sub-USD100k.
- Loss forecast: Reduced by 21% for FY15.
- Maybank KE Rating: Sell with an unchanged TP of MYR0.80.
Icon Offshore
- Secured spot charters for 2 AHTS.
- Charter value: MYR7.7m over 3-7 months.
- Average DCR: MYR25k.
- Maybank KE Rating: Sell with an unchanged TP of MYR0.25.
Yinson Holdings
- Secured a second extension for FPSO Adoon.
- Day rate: Similar to current levels, but with a longer tenure of 3 years.
- Value: USD129m.
- Maybank KE Rating: Buy with a reiterated TP of MYR4.35.
- Special dividend: Likely post sale of non-O&G business.
Valuation Highlights
Oil & Gas Companies
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (28-Oct) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE (%) | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 6.07 | 4.80 | 240.5 | 83.4 | 26.7 | 46.5 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Buy | 5.66 | 6.00 | 94.7 | 67.3 | 13.7 | 14.9 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 3.6 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 8.57 | 11.34 | 49.4 | 91.0 | 15.9 | 19.1 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 4.6 |
| New Ocean Energy | 342 HK | Buy | 3.39 | 7.70 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 19.0 | 0.8 | 2.1 |
Oil-Service Companies
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (28-Oct) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD b) | 90D T/O (USD m) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE (%) | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSL | 2883 HK | NR | 9.03 | NR | 10.0 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Anton Oil | 3337 HK | NR | 1.06 | NR | 0.3 | 0.6 | N/A | 43.5 | 11.9 | 8.2 | -3.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 0.79 | NR | 0.2 | 0.4 | N/A | 65.6 | 12.2 | 9.5 | -1.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Hilong | 1623 HK | NR | 1.65 | NR | 0.4 | 0.4 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 10.2 | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| Honghua | 196 HK | NR | 0.64 | NR | 0.3 | 0.3 | N/A | N/A | 65.6 | 9.5 | -1.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 0.94 | 1.20 | 1.3 | 3.9 | 27.4 | 24.6 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | Buy | 1.63 | 1.90 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 28.8 | 30.9 | 27.3 | 29.2 | 15.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | Buy | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Perdana Petroleum | PETR MK | Buy | 1.54 | 1.70 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 19.2 | 9.2 | 14.2 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
Key Insights
- Oil Prices: Both Brent and WTI saw significant increases, indicating a reversal of previous bearish trends.
- Company Performance: CNOOC Ltd reported strong operational results despite low oil prices, while others like UMW Oil & Gas and Icon Offshore faced challenges.
- Dividend Policies: Oil companies are prioritizing dividend payouts over capital expenditures, reflecting a strategic focus on shareholder returns.
- Market Valuations: Valuation metrics vary significantly, with some companies showing strong potential for growth and others facing pressure due to low oil prices and operational challenges.
- Analyst Ratings: Maybank KE provides specific ratings and target prices, highlighting both opportunities and risks in the regional oil and gas sector.
Summary of Key Information
- Oil Price Trends: Brent and WTI both rose significantly, indicating a market rebound from previous declines.
- Company Performance: CNOOC Ltd maintained its operational goals despite low prices, while others like UMW Oil & Gas and Icon Offshore saw reductions in forecasts.
- Dividend Strategy: Companies are maintaining or increasing dividends, even as they cut back on spending.
- Valuation Metrics: PER and EV/EBITDA vary across companies, with some showing strong fundamentals and others struggling.
- Analyst Views: Maybank KE analysts provide specific ratings and target prices, suggesting a mix of buy, sell, and hold recommendations based on company-specific developments and market conditions.
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