20231224-国盛证券-量化周报_市场即将迎来反弹_23页_2mb

The report, a 2023 quantitative weekly analysis from Guosen Securities dated December 24, argues for an imminent market rebound after a significant downturn in the past week. Key indices like the Shanghai Composite fell 0.94%, with tech and healthcare sectors experiencing daily-level declines and indices hitting recent lows, indicating excessive panic. The uptick in A-share sentiment and positive market signals from recent rollbacks in key metrics support the case for a reversal.

In the mid-term view, consolidation is expected with the Shanghai Composite in a weekly downtrend and the CSI 500 also under pressure, potentially requiring time for recovery. However, long-term positives include three years of decline in major indices, suggesting bottoms have been reached, with limited further downside.

Sector-wise, the report highlights potential for recovery in pharmaceuticals and other beaten-down areas while sell signals are present in media and tech. Market style favors large-cap, high-growth stocks, with enhanced index strategies outperforming benchmarks.

Risk is noted due to reliance on historical data, and overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, supported by improving A-share indicators and performance in specific strategies.

Key summary points:

• Short-term rebound likely due to oversold conditions.
• Mid-term outlook posits consolidation and potential recovery.
• Long-term bottom indicators suggest limited downside.
• Positive market sentiment with preferences for large-cap and growth factors.
• Sector breakdown: support for pharma, steel; resistance from media, tech.
• Performance: CSI 500 enhanced funds upbeat, style factors trending positively.