纽约联储-劳动力市场分离的长期兴起_来自当地劳动力市场的证据（英）-2024_59页_2mb

Summary: The Long-Term Rise of Labor Market Detachment

Core Content

This paper investigates the long-term increase in labor market detachment among prime-age individuals (ages 25 to 54) in the United States, focusing on those who have been out of the labor force for more than a year. The authors introduce a new measure called the detachment rate, which distinguishes long-term non-participation from unemployment and short-term non-participation, offering a more nuanced understanding of labor market disengagement.

Main Findings

• Rise in Detachment Rate:

  • The detachment rate for prime-age men more than doubled from 4% in 1980 to 9% in 2015.
  • For prime-age women, the detachment rate rose from 27% in 1980 to 22% in 2015, though it has always been consistently higher for women than men.
  • The detachment rate declined slightly after 2015 as labor market conditions improved post-Great Recession.

• Gender Differences:

  • Women are more likely to be detached due to caregiving responsibilities, especially for those with children.
  • The disability component is significant for both genders, but its impact on women's detachment has grown more pronounced over time.
  • Early retirement is a growing cause of detachment for both men and women, likely due to job loss and difficulty re-entering the workforce.

• Economic and Technological Factors:

  • Globalization and technological change have significantly reduced routine jobs, particularly in manufacturing and clerical work.
  • The decline in production jobs affected both men and women, with more severe consequences for men in the 1990s and early 2000s.
  • The decline in administrative support jobs disproportionately affected women, especially in the 1980s and 1990s with the rise of computers.

• Geographic Patterns:

  • Detachment rates are higher in areas with weak local economies, such as parts of Appalachia, and lower in areas with strong economic growth, like Austin, TX, Nashville, TN, Arlington, VA, and Boston, MA.
  • Mobility has declined over time, particularly among those without college degrees, limiting their ability to move to better labor markets.
  • Regional divergence has increased due to the interplay between reduced job opportunities and limited mobility.

• Demographic Trends:

  • Detachment is more common among older individuals and those without a college degree.
  • Education level is strongly correlated with lower detachment rates, with college-educated individuals being least likely to be detached.
  • Race and ethnicity also influence detachment rates, with Black and Hispanic individuals having higher rates than White individuals, especially among women.

Key Contributions

1. New Measure of Detachment:

   • Introduces the detachment rate as a distinct metric from unemployment and short-term non-participation.
   • Highlights the structural nature of the increase in detachment over time.

2. Gender-Specific Insights:

   • Demonstrates that women's detachment has been more significant than men's, particularly due to the shift in roles at home and the decline in administrative support jobs.
   • Reveals that the caregiver role is a major driver of the U-shaped pattern in women’s detachment rates.

3. Geographic Analysis:

   • Shows that detachment is geographically concentrated, with areas that have experienced economic decline seeing higher rates.
   • Identifies regional reinvention as a factor in lower detachment rates in economically vibrant regions.

Conclusion

The rise in labor market detachment is attributed to structural changes in the economy driven by globalization and technological progress, combined with a decline in geographic mobility. These factors have led to chronic joblessness for many prime-age individuals, especially those in low-skilled or routine jobs, and have created significant regional disparities in labor market outcomes. The paper underscores the need for a more comprehensive understanding of labor market conditions that includes the detachment rate alongside traditional measures of unemployment.