2026年新西兰经济报告_149页_5mb

OECD Economic Surveys: New Zealand 2026 Summary

Core Content

The OECD Economic Surveys: New Zealand 2026 outlines the current state of New Zealand's economy and highlights key areas for reform. The report is based on data up to April 23, 2026, and focuses on macroeconomic recovery, energy challenges, digital health transformation, and capital market development.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Economic Recovery and Uncertainty

• Economic Recovery: New Zealand is in the early stages of a cyclical recovery, driven by solid exports and monetary easing.
• Growth Outlook: Real GDP is projected to grow at 1.4% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027 (Table 1).
• Uncertainty Factors: The recovery is fragile and uneven due to global trade policy uncertainty, high energy costs, and subdued net migration.
• Inflation: Inflation has fallen from earlier peaks but remains slightly above the 1–3% target range. Energy and transport costs are driving renewed inflationary pressures.
• Labour Market: The unemployment rate is expected to remain elevated, though it is projected to decline to 5.1% in 2027. The employment rate is 67.9%, with a high youth unemployment rate of 14.1%.
• Productivity: Productivity growth has been modest, below the OECD average, indicating a need for structural reforms.

2. Energy and Electricity Challenges

• Renewable Energy: New Zealand’s electricity system is highly renewable, with hydro and geothermal energy dominating (Table 2.1).
• Firming Capacity: Insufficient firming capacity is undermining electricity security and affordability, leading to price spikes during dry years.
• Gas Shortages: Declining gas production and reliance on imports have increased energy costs and threatened system stability.
• Solutions:
  • LNG is proposed as a short-term transition tool.
  • A mandatory Firming and Flexibility Market (FFM) is needed to improve access to firming services and reduce reliance on opaque bilateral deals.
  • Increasing demand-side flexibility and supporting independent-led, long-duration firming generation are key.
  • Reforming planning laws and reducing appeal rights could speed up electricity generation projects.

3. Digital Transformation in the Health System

• Digitalisation Potential: Digital tools and AI offer significant opportunities to improve health system performance, reduce administrative burden, and enhance productivity.
• Current Gaps: Digital infrastructure and health workforce capabilities are still limited, with uneven adoption across regions and population groups.
• Recommendations:
  • Clearer regulatory settings and improved digital infrastructure are essential.
  • Accelerating capacity-building across the health workforce and integrating AI into medical education.
  • Coordinated investment and incentives for digital health, drawing from international best practices like those in Korea.

4. Capital Market Development

• Shallow Capital Markets: New Zealand’s capital markets are smaller than those in many OECD countries, limiting funding for innovative firms.
• Savings and Investment: Low private pension savings and inadequate capital market depth are constraints on investment.
• Reforms:
  • Increasing KiwiSaver contributions and shifting taxation from contributions to withdrawals.
  • Expanding venture capital and reviving public listings.
  • Improving SME debt markets and reducing loan rejection rates.
  • Modernising corporate bond markets and simplifying capital market regulation.
  • Enhancing financial literacy and promoting innovation through supportive policies.

Key Recommendations

• Fiscal and Structural Reforms: Continued fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are needed to address the long-term fiscal pressures from an ageing population.
• Monetary Policy: Maintaining the Reserve Bank’s credibility, independence, and operational clarity is crucial for inflation control, especially in the face of rising energy prices.
• Financial Stability: Macroprudential tools and banking competition reforms are essential to ensure financial resilience.
• Energy Policy:
  • Introduce a mandatory Firming and Flexibility Market (FFM).
  • Consider minority Crown investment in non-gas firming generation.
  • Support demand-side flexibility to break the gas-electricity price link.
• Capital Market Deepening:
  • Promote venture capital growth and public equity market development.
  • Improve SME access to credit and reduce loan rejection rates.
  • Simplify capital market regulations and enhance financial literacy.

Supporting Data and Figures

• GDP Growth and Inflation: Figure 1 shows GDP growth gradually increasing while inflation faces renewed pressures.
• Labour Market Trends: The employment rate is 67.9%, with a high youth unemployment rate of 14.1%.
• Electricity System: Figure 2.1 highlights the dominance of renewable energy in the electricity mix.
• Health System: Figure 3.6 shows increased use of digital health services, though adoption varies by region and demographic.
• Capital Markets: Figure 4.3 indicates that New Zealand's capital markets are smaller than those of many OECD countries.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of policy coherence, fiscal and monetary stability, and market reforms to ensure New Zealand’s sustainable and resilient economic growth. It calls for a proactive approach to address the challenges in energy, health, and capital markets, leveraging digital tools and international best practices to improve performance and long-term outcomes.