界铂金投资协会-2024年第四季度白金季度（英）_31页_2mb

报告摘要

Q4 2024:

Market Deficit: A Q4 deficit of 256 koz was driven by investment demand (360 koz), partly fueled by ETF inflows (142 koz) and exchange stock movements due to US tariff concerns.
Demand Growth: Q4 demand reached 2,195 koz (+22% YoY), boosted by strong jewellery (520 koz, +10% YoY) and investment, offset by weaker automotive (768 koz, -6% YoY) and industrial demand.
Supply Increase: Supply rose to 1,938 koz (+2% YoY), aided by higher recycling (404 koz) and mining output (1,534 koz, +1% YoY).

Annual 2024 Review:

Overall Deficit: Total 2024 deficit reached 995 koz, the widest since the series began, widening from the 9957 deficit in 2023.
Strong Investment: Investment demand jumped 77% to 702 koz, led by ETF inflows (+296 koz) and bar/coin demand.
Jewellery Growth: Demand reached 1,993 koz (+8% YoY), driven by record levels in Europe, North America, India, and solid Chinese recovery.
Mining Decline: Output fell 3% YoY to 5,807 koz due to work-in-progress depletion, while recycling hit a 10-year low at 1,486 koz.

2025 Outlook:

Worsening Deficit: Expected deficit of 848 koz (+309 koz YoY), intensified by declining mine supply (-5% YoY), record-low recycling (1,496 koz), and reduced investment.
Jewellery Uptrend: Demand forecasted to reach 2,027 koz (+2% YoY), exceeding 2Moz for the first time since 2019.
Market Impact: Structural deficits and price-suppression from a platinum-gold discount are fueling investment interest.

Investment Surge: Driven by fears of US tariffs and structural supply shortfall, attracting retail flows into ETFs and exchange stocks.
Mining Challenges: Ongoing consolidation in South Africa, sanctions complexities for Russian supply, and subdued recycling constrain supply.
Sector Risks: Regional inventory limits, potential ETF pullbacks, and rising debt repayment uncertainties pose liquidity risks.

Strategic Outlook

Hold-to-ger Approach: Targeted at investors seeking protection via excess-return and distressed price dynamics.
Physical Allocation: Focus on bar and coin demand, leveraging affordability under gold’s premium.
Tail Risk: Geopolitical triggers (e.g., tariffs) or supply shocks could abruptly alter deficits.