期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-winter2006_72页_1mb

NBER Winter 2005/6 Summary

Core Content

The NBER Reporter Winter 2005/6 issue provides an overview of research conducted by the NBER's Public Economics Program, highlighting key areas of study, recent findings, and ongoing debates in tax policy, social insurance, political economy, and the economics of state and local government. It also includes information about the NBER's structure, funding, and services.

Main Topics and Key Research Areas

1. Taxation

• Core Issues: The Public Economics Program focuses on the economics of taxation and social insurance programs.
• Recent Tax Reforms:
  • 2001 Tax Act: Introduced a temporary tax rebate, which led to increased consumer spending, especially among low-wealth households.
  • 2003 Tax Act: Reduced dividend tax rates to 15%, affecting corporate financial decisions and dividend payout behavior.
  • 2004 Tax Bill: Introduced a tax holiday for repatriated earnings and specialized provisions to encourage business activities.
• Research Focus:
  • Analysis of behavioral responses to tax changes (e.g., labor supply, capital gains, and taxable income reporting).
  • Studies on the impact of tax incentives on health insurance, charitable giving, and retirement savings.
  • Examination of the elasticity of taxable income and the economic effects of shifting toward a consumption tax.
  • Research on tax evasion, optimal taxation, and the measurement of tax burden distribution.

2. Social Insurance Programs

• Social Security and Medicare:
  • These programs are the largest long-term commitments of the federal government and have attracted significant research attention.
  • Studies focus on the long-term fiscal sustainability, benefit perceptions, and the impact of reform proposals such as "private accounts."
  • The role of Social Security in labor market behavior and retirement incentives is explored using international comparisons and U.S. data.
• Other Social Insurance Programs:
  • Research includes unemployment insurance, Medicaid, TANF, disability insurance, housing assistance, and child care subsidies.
  • Behavioral responses to these programs are studied, including household saving, benefit take-up, labor supply, and living arrangements.
  • The interaction between government social insurance and private insurance markets is also examined.

3. Political Economy and Legislative Structure

• Political Institutions and Policy Outcomes:
  • Researchers investigate how political institutions influence policy decisions and outcomes.
  • Topics include electoral rules, legislative bargaining power, and the structure of political parties.
• Election Mechanics:
  • Studies analyze voting behavior, campaign spending, candidate selection, and electoral outcomes.
  • The role of voter preferences, interest groups, and political history in shaping institutions is emphasized.
• Regulatory vs. Elected Decision-Makers:
  • Research suggests that elected politicians may be more effective in certain policy settings due to the need to compensate losers and the absence of specialized technical expertise.

Key Information and Findings

• The NBER Public Economics Program has over 120 affiliated researchers, though only half identify it as their primary affiliation.
• The program has produced 605 working papers and six books since 2001, contributing significantly to NBER research.
• Tax behavior has been a central focus, with studies showing that households tend to spend a large portion of tax rebates, particularly those with low financial wealth.
• Corporate tax reforms have led to increased dividend payouts, reversing a long-term decline in corporate dividend policies.
• Social Security research includes both fiscal sustainability analysis and behavioral effects, with Chile's privatized system serving as a case study.
• Political economy research emphasizes the interaction between institutions and policy outcomes, and the potential efficiency of different decision-making structures.

NBER Services and Structure

• Free Email Service: Offers daily links to U.S. government data releases (e.g., unemployment, GDP, interest rates).
• NBER Leadership:
  • President & CEO: Martin Feldstein
  • Board of Directors: Includes prominent economists from various institutions and organizations.
• Funding: The NBER relies on contributions from individuals, corporations, and private foundations.
• Public Information: The Reporter is for informational purposes only and not copyrighted, allowing free reproduction with proper attribution.

Conclusion

The NBER's Public Economics Program continues to be a leading force in understanding the economic implications of government policies, particularly in taxation and social insurance. Its research provides valuable insights into policy design, behavioral responses, and long-term fiscal sustainability, contributing to both academic and public policy discussions.