期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Winter1978_32页_743kb

NBER Reporter Summary - Winter 1978

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for Winter 1978 provides an overview of the NBER Program in Labor Studies, highlighting the evolving nature of the U.S. labor market and the research initiatives undertaken by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The report emphasizes the integration of large-scale data with detailed institutional information, the use of modern econometric tools, and the analysis of both macroeconomic and microeconomic labor issues.

Main Topics and Key Findings

1. Labor Economics Program

• The program focuses on analyzing labor market behavior, institutional changes, and their links to productivity, wages, employment, and unemployment.
• It combines quantitative data analysis with case studies and interviews with decision-makers.
• The goal is to understand the changing nature of the job market and provide insights for public and private policy.

2. Trade Unionism

• Trade unions are described as the principal institution of workers in modern industrial societies.
• Recent research explores nonwage effects of unionization, such as turnover, job satisfaction, productivity, and compensation.
• Key findings:
  • Unionized workers have lower quit rates, higher job tenure, and higher temporary layoff rates.
  • The union wage differential is estimated to be 10–15%, even after accounting for firm selection effects.
  • Unionized sectors pay a higher fraction of compensation in fringes and have lower wage dispersion.
  • Productivity is higher in some sectors (e.g., cement, wood furniture, manufacturing) but lower in others (e.g., coal).
• The program also investigates the decline in private sector unionization and the impact of unionization on wages.

3. Youth Unemployment

• The NBER has initiated a major research effort on youth unemployment, especially among minority youth.
• Key findings:
  • There are major differences in youth work activity reported in different surveys, raising concerns about the reliability of the data.
  • The traditional unemployment-labor force dichotomy may not be useful for understanding youth behavior.
  • Factors influencing youth unemployment include family background, high school experience, and early labor market experience.
  • Minimum wage, cyclical factors, and relative youth population are important determinants.
• The project includes interviews with employers, surveys of unemployed youth, and data analysis.

4. Compensation and Mobility

• Research on compensation and labor mobility is conducted through two approaches:
  • Jacob Mincer examines lifetime earnings and mobility patterns, focusing on job tenure.
    • Quits are more likely due to job dissatisfaction or personal matters at older ages.
    • Job tenure has a greater impact on quits and layoffs than age.
    • Wages increase with tenure, suggesting that staying with a firm leads to higher earnings.
    • Migration is heavily influenced by family ties.
  • James Medoff investigates compensation and turnover in specific firms, highlighting differences in wages and performance evaluations.
    • Performance evaluations do not rise with age, even though wages do.
    • This raises questions about the nature of internal labor markets.

5. Econometrics of Longitudinal Data Sets

• The availability of longitudinal data sets has opened new research opportunities in labor economics.
• James Heckman and Gary Chamberlain have developed new econometric tools to analyze these data.
• Heckman’s work addresses sample selection biases and state dependence vs. heterogeneity.
• Chamberlain has developed estimation procedures that control for omitted variables.
• These tools are applied to:
  • Labor-force participation decisions.
  • Returns to schooling.
  • Effects of unions on quits and wages.

Research Summaries

1. The Taxation of Capital Gains

• Martin Feldstein and Joel Slemrod analyzed the impact of inflation on capital gains taxation.
• Key findings:
  • Inflation leads to excess taxation of capital gains.
  • In 1973, individuals paid $1.1 billion in capital-gains tax, but real capital gains would have been taxed at only $661 million.
  • The effective tax rate on real gains was nearly doubled due to inflation.
  • High-income taxpayers reduced their realization of gains after 1969, while low-income taxpayers increased it.
  • Lowering the capital-gains tax rate to 25% could lead to a threefold increase in realized gains and a substantial rise in tax revenues.

2. Research on Trade Unionism

• Richard B. Freeman outlines a new perspective on trade unions, moving beyond the traditional monopoly model.
• Unions are viewed as providing collective voice and industrial jurisprudence, influencing:
  • Workplace dynamics.
  • Social relations.
  • Economic outcomes.
• The collective voice model suggests that unions can improve efficiency by allowing workers to express dissatisfaction and negotiate collectively.
• Unions also offer protection against managerial authority, promoting due process and grievance systems.

Conclusion

The NBER Program in Labor Studies is at the forefront of understanding labor market behavior, union effects, and taxation impacts on individual and firm decisions. The integration of large data sets with institutional analysis allows for a more comprehensive view of the labor market, informing economic policy and public debate. The research highlights the complexity of labor economics, emphasizing the need for new methodologies and interdisciplinary approaches.