2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Sierra_Leone_Second_and_Third_Reviews_Under_the_Three_73页_1mb

Summary of Sierra Leone's Second and Third Reviews Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

This document outlines the findings of the IMF staff report, the press release from the Executive Board, and the statement by the Executive Director regarding Sierra Leone's Second and Third Reviews under the Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). It covers the nonobservance of performance criteria, requests for waivers and modifications, and the financing assurances review. The report also includes the Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP), and Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU).

Main Points

1. Economic Developments and Policy Implementation

• Economic Recovery: The economy continued to recover, with real GDP growth reaching 5% in 2010, and expected to remain stable in 2011.
• High Inflation: Inflation remained high, reaching 17% in September 2011, driven by exogenous price shocks (food and fuel) and expansionary monetary policy in late 2010.
• Exchange Rate Depreciation: The leone depreciated by 9% in 2010 and 5% further in 2011.

2. Macroeconomic Policy Slippages

• Unbudgeted Spending: A surge in unbudgeted fiscal spending in late 2010, driven by infrastructure investments, led to liquidity expansion.
• Fiscal Deficit Expansion: The fiscal deficit increased to 5.9% of GDP in 2010, compared to 1.3% in 2009.
• Performance Criteria Violation: The December 2010 performance criteria were not met, with net domestic bank credit to government exceeding the ceiling by 2.4% of GDP, and central bank net domestic assets exceeding the target by 0.9% of GDP.

3. Policy Corrections

• Fiscal Tightening: Early 2011 saw fiscal tightening, with domestic financing reduced to 1% of GDP from the 1.9% originally planned.
• Interest Rates Declined: Treasury bill interest rates fell by more than 7 percentage points to 23% due to policy tightening.
• Monetary Policy Tightening: Reserve money growth was reduced to 4% in 2011, and is expected to return to 15% in 2012.
• Debt Management: The government committed to strengthening concessionality monitoring and sharing new loan contracts with IMF staff for review.

4. Key Structural Reforms

• Tax Administration: The National Revenue Authority (NRA) will transfer eligible taxpayers to the Medium Taxpayer Office (MTO), and integrate GST administration with the MTO and Large Taxpayer Office (LTO).
• Public Financial Management: The Government Budgeting and Accountability Act (GBAA) will be amended to enhance budget execution and un-appropriated expenditures procedures.
• Pay Reform: A multi-year pay reform plan will be implemented to improve public servant compensation, with savings from re-grading, right-sizing, and payroll clean-up.
• Banking Supervision: The Bank of Sierra Leone (BSL) will issue revised prudential guidelines aligned with the Basel Core Principles.

5. 2012 Budget Framework

• Fiscal Space Constraints: Fiscal space is limited due to reduced fuel excises and election costs in 2012.
• Revenue Expectations: Domestic revenue is expected to reach 14.9% of GDP in 2012, with GST at 3.5%, royalties from iron ore at 1.5%, and corporate income tax performing well.
• Spending Projections: Total spending is expected to decrease to 24% of non-iron ore GDP from 26.7% in 2011.
• Capital Spending: Capital spending is projected to fall to 8.6% of non-iron ore GDP from 10.4% in 2011.
• Domestic Financing: Domestic financing is expected to remain low at 1.4% of non-iron ore GDP.

6. Macroeconomic Outlook

• Growth and Poverty Reduction: The medium-term objective is accelerated growth and poverty reduction through a stable macroeconomic environment.
• Iron Ore Project Impact: The Tonkolili Iron Ore Project, expected to start in 2012, will significantly boost GDP growth, exports, and budget revenue.
• Debt Sustainability: With the start of iron ore production, debt-to-export and debt-to-GDP ratios are expected to improve substantially. A full Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) will be conducted during the fourth review in March 2012.

Key Information

• The three-year ECF arrangement was approved in June 2010 for SDR 31.11 million (30% of quota), with two disbursements of SDR 4.44 million made.
• The Executive Board approved the waivers and modifications of performance criteria for nonobservance.
• The Tonkolili Iron Ore Project is expected to have a one-time 45% increase in real GDP in 2012, and exports to quadruple.
• The debt-to-export ratio is projected to fall from 90% in 2011 to 41% in 2012, and debt-to-GDP ratio from 20% to 14%.
• The government has taken steps to limit central bank credit to 5% of the previous year’s domestic revenue.
• The BSL will use repo instruments to achieve liquidity targets and enhance monetary policy independence.
• The government is seeking technical assistance from the World Bank and IMF to develop a Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS).

Document Structure

• Staff Report: Completed on November 18, 2011, based on discussions with Sierra Leone officials in March–September 2011.
• Press Release: Summarizes the Executive Board's views from December 7, 2011.
• Executive Director Statement: Provides an official perspective on the review.
• Attachments:
  • Letter of Intent
  • Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP)
  • Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU)

Conclusion

The report highlights ongoing efforts by Sierra Leone to correct macroeconomic imbalances, enhance fiscal discipline, and prepare for the economic impact of the Tonkolili Iron Ore Project. It also underscores the need for improved debt management and structural reforms to ensure long-term economic stability and sustainable growth.