2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Benin_Second_Review_Under_the_Three_78页_1mb

Summary of Benin's Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

This document outlines the results of the second review under the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Benin, conducted in the context of economic recovery and policy implementation following the 2010 floods and elections. The review also includes a request for a waiver of non-observance of the continuous performance criterion on external debt concessionality.

Main Points

Economic Recovery and Performance

• Growth and Inflation: After a weak 2010, economic recovery is expected to strengthen in 2011. Growth is projected to reach 3.8 percent, driven by public investment (including post-flood reconstruction), higher agricultural output, and regional growth. Inflation is expected to remain below the WAEMU convergence criterion of 3 percent.
• Reconstruction Needs: Post-flood reconstruction needs were estimated at around 2 percent of GDP, primarily in infrastructure and social sectors. These costs were included in the 2011 public investment plans.
• Current Account: The current account deficit narrowed significantly in 2010 to 7.8 percent of GDP, supported by increased remittances and reduced imports of intermediate goods. The overall balance of payments turned slightly positive at the end of 2010.

Fiscal Policy

• Performance: Fiscal targets were largely met at the end of March 2011, with the exception of the indicative target on priority social expenditure, which was missed by 20 percent.
• Wage Bill: The wage bill was below the program target, but it remains a significant portion of public expenditure. It absorbed 45 percent of total tax revenue in 2010, well above the WAEMU convergence criterion of 35 percent.
• Fiscal Space: Maintaining fiscal prudence is essential to preserve macroeconomic stability. Revenue mobilization in the second half of the year is critical to generating fiscal space for priority spending.

Structural Reforms

• Tax and Customs: The one-stop window at the Port of Cotonou was launched as planned. Customs revenue was on target, and domestic tax revenue exceeded expectations. However, the implementation of the ASYCUDA ++ system was delayed, and the extension of the single tax identification number (TIN) was also delayed due to slow donor support.
• Civil Service Reform: The authorities are committed to civil service reform, including the establishment of a computerized database for civil servants and the completion of two supporting studies by the end of 2011.
• Public Enterprises: Efforts are underway to increase efficiency through private sector participation. The electricity company is expected to post a small profit in 2011, and the authorities do not plan to increase electricity tariffs at this stage.
• Debt Sustainability: The updated Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) indicates low risk of debt distress for Benin, but this depends on timely structural reforms and continued concessional assistance. The authorities requested a waiver for the non-observance of the concessionality criterion due to two missed instances.

Key Information

• ECF Arrangement: Approved on June 14, 2010, with an amount of SDR 74.28 million (120 percent of quota). The first review was completed on February 16, 2011.
• Program Review: Program implementation was broadly satisfactory, with all performance criteria and all but one indicative targets met by end-March 2011.
• Waiver Request: Staff supports the authorities' request for a waiver of the non-observance of the external debt concessionality performance criterion in two instances and the completion of the second review.
• Debt Concessionality: The authorities contracted two external loans (0.6 percent of GDP) for infrastructure development, which narrowly missed the concessionality threshold. They requested a higher debt ceiling for non-concessional external loans with maturity over one year and a grant element over 20 percent.
• Fiscal Risks: Labor union demands for wage increases could erode fiscal space and compromise the program. Delays in revenue collection and implementation of structural reforms also pose risks.
• Program Objectives: The 2011-15 Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy (GPRS) includes improving living standards and moving Benin towards emerging market status. The strategy is supported by a medium-term Priority Action Program (PAP) and a monitoring system.

Conclusion

The staff report highlights the progress made by Benin in implementing the ECF program, despite some challenges. It underscores the importance of continued fiscal discipline, structural reforms, and addressing the wage bill to ensure long-term sustainability and growth. The request for a waiver is supported due to the satisfactory overall performance and strong policy commitments.

Supporting Documents

• Staff Report: Completed on August 24, 2011, following discussions in Cotonou from July 7-20, 2011.
• Staff Supplement: Includes the Debt Sustainability Assessment.
• Press Release: Summarizes the Executive Board's views on the review.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Provides an official perspective on the review and program outcomes.

References

• Abbreviations: Includes key terms like ECF, WAEMU, SDR, and others.
• Tables and Figures: Provide detailed data on economic performance, fiscal indicators, and reconstruction needs.

Appendices

• Appendix I: Letter of Intent (LOI) from the Benin authorities to the IMF.
• Attachment I: Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU) outlining the terms of the ECF arrangement.