2025-06-15-高盛-莱纳公司（LEN）_2025年第二财季初步分析_7页_250kb

Lennar Corp. (LEN) Goldman Sachs Analysis Summary

Financial Performance

• F2Q25 Adj. EPS: $1.90, below analyst estimate of $1.92 and consensus $1.94 due to weaker-than-expected homebuilding revenues and a 30bps lower HB EBIT margin at 9.3%.
• Homebuilding revenues declined 7% YOY (units +2%, ASP -9%), offset partially by other items, lower G&A, and share count effects.
• Unit orders increased 6% YOY, but ASP fell 6% seq due to incentives to address affordability challenges.

Strategic Outlook

• Inventory turns rose to 1.8x, supporting a land-light operating strategy.
• F3Q closings expected to grow 5% YOY at midpoint, with HB gross margin approximately flat at 18%.
• Demand pressures from affordability challenges and low consumer confidence noted.

Investment View

• Neutral rating with $120 12-month price target, based on 1.5x NTM tangible book value.
• Upside risks: Value creation from transactions, effective capital allocation, moderating costs.
• Downside risks: Economic deterioration, elevated rates impacting affordability, delays in community growth.

Key Metrics

• Price: $109.49, Upside: 9.6%.
• P/E Ratio: 11.3x; EV/EBITDA: 7.2x.