20230824-招银国际-保利物业-06049.HK-1H23_results_in_line_but_AR_remains_a_concern_5页_908kb

报告摘要

1H23 Financial Results: Net profit increased by 22% YoY to RMB 764mn, exceeding revenue growth of 11% YoY. Margin improvement was driven by higher gross profit margin (21.2% vs. 20.2% in 1H22) and lower SG&A fee rate (7.3% vs. 8.0% in 1H22).
Business Strategies: For basic property management, reduced project density by focusing on 48 cities; for community VAS, prioritized high-margin growth among residents and exited low-margin materials supply.
Full-Year Targets: Maintained revenue growth target of 20% YoY, backed by SOE parent, Poly Development, which may deliver 180k units in 2H23, boosting VAS non-owner revenue.
Concerns: Accounts receivable rose 31% YoY, primarily due to 25% revenue contribution from revenue from public service business, which has longer payment cycles. This is a puzzle as the business aligns with GFA growth under policy support.

Rating: Maintain BUY, target price trimmed to HK$57.31 (down from HK$58.39), reflecting higher margins but lower revenue growth expectations.
Valuation: Current price HK$37.00; implied 20x 2023E PE; attractive at 14x 2023E PE.
Recommendation: Strong support from parent company and government project winning advantages.

Increased property defaults in the sector may cause volatility.
Valuation metrics show P/E decreasing to 10.0x by 2025E, but revenue growth may face market concerns.

Earnings Summary: EPS expected to reach RMB 2.49 in 2023E.
Profitability: ROE improved to 16.9% in 2023E; operating margin stable at around 11%.
AR and Receivables: AR growth driven by revenue shift to To G business; payable turnover days increased to 51.7 in 2023E.

Maintain BUY amid solid growth outlook, but AR issue remains a key focus.

展开完整摘要