20231102-招商银行-行内偕作·宏观点评（第633期）_2023年10月日本央行议息会议点评-左右为难_4页_477kb

日本央行（BoJ）于2023年10月30日维持负政策利率和新YCC框架，删除了10年期国债收益率0.5%的波动范围表述，并将1%从刚性上限调整为参考上限，反映出对市场现实的默认。经济方面，短期复苏受海外放缓影响，通胀持续上行，长期潜在增长率提升，劳动力市场紧俏但薪资增长不稳固。市场反应显示日元贬值、股市上涨和国债收益率上升。展望上，预计短期政策或渐进调整，但长期将保持宽松立场。

• Policy Changes: BoJ kept negative rate at -0.1% and YCC, but relaxed the 10-year yield constraint to near 1%.
• Economic Assessment: Short-term risks from weakness,通胀 persist above 2%, long-term growth potential improved but recovery foundations fragile.
• Market Reaction: Yen fell, Nikkei rose, yields climbed.
• Future Outlook: Gradual policy normalization likely, but long-term monetary ease remains probable due to weak domestic economy and global pressures.