2025-05-22-Jefferies-2025年第一季度海运动力煤供应趋势_10页_274kb

报告摘要

Seaborne met coal supply decreased in 1Q25, with Australia accounting for 54-60% of global supply (60-70% from tracked miners). Supply from these miners fell by 7.4% sequentially and 9.9% year-over-year (YoY) vs. 1Q24.
PLV (prime low volatility) met coal supply decreased by 5.3% YoY. Demand remains weak due to poor global steel markets, with high-cost capacity closures in response to low prices.
Future supply growth from mines like Centurion and Blue Creek could add over 14 million tonnes annually, potentially limiting price upside during demand recovery.
Demand projections show moderate growth in regions like India and China, but overall balances have been negative in recent periods.

Met coal prices are at a near-trough, below marginal cost and 27% below the 15-year average (real terms). Current spot prices are around $189/tonne.
Prices are expected to improve if demand recovers, but not until next year. Short-term volatility persists due to weak demand and capacity adjustments.
Long-term price forecast is $215/tonne, with spot prices potentially rising from current levels.

Recovery depends on demand rebound, but supply additions may constrain price gains initially. Valuations vary, with companies like Anglo American and Peabody Energy rated Buy or Hold respectively.
Risks include continued high costs, supply growth from new mines, geopolitical factors, and market volatility affecting commodities. Conflicts of interest in company dealings may influence recommendations.

Equity research highlights companies with buy, hold, or underperform ratings based on price targets, growth, and risk factors.
Overall, the market is weak, but prices may rise moderately with demand recovery later in the year.

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