20150811-Maybank_KERPL-Indonesia_Property_2Q_presales__More_launches_15页_530kb

报告摘要

Indonesia Property Market Summary

Core Content

The Indonesia property market experienced slower quarterly presales in 2Q15 compared to the previous quarter, primarily due to the high carry-over effect from 1Q15. However, presales were stronger year-over-year for the first half of 2015. The report highlights the performance of various developers and the outlook for the second half of the year, particularly the potential impact of increased liquidity from promotional mortgage products.

Main Points

Presales Performance in 2Q15:
- Presales were down 4% QoQ but up YoY for the first half of 2015.
- Industrial land presales were slower as investors delayed capital expenditures.
Liquidity Outlook:
- The relaxation of LTV (Loan-to-Value) regulations is expected to boost buying sentiment in 2H15.
- Promotional mortgage products from big banks, such as Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ), with 10% down payment requirements, are anticipated to increase market liquidity.
Top BUYs:
- SMRA (Summarecon Agung), BSDE (Bumi Serpong Damai), and LPCK (Lippo Cikarang) are highlighted as top BUYs due to strong presales and resilient market strategies.
Hold and Concerns:
- Developers like ASRI, CTRA, BKSL, and BEST are flagged with concerns due to low presales and weak project pipelines.
- ASRI and BEST have reduced their FY15 presales targets, and CTRA and BKSL are expected to follow suit.

Key Developers Analysis

Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI J)

Presales in 2Q15: IDR 565b (-6% QoQ), 26% of revised FY15 target (IDR 4,500b).
Performance: Presales were dragged by weak office product sales. Management is optimistic about achieving the revised target, relying on potential bulk sales with strategic investors.
Valuation: Current share price is at IDR 505, with a Target Price (TP) of IDR 750, implying a 49% upside.
Discount to RNAV: 67%.
Recommendation: BUY.

Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ)

Presales in 2Q15: IDR 1,226b (+30% YoY), 46% of FY15 target (IDR 7,501b).
Performance: Strong growth in presales driven by housing products. The company plans to launch new projects in Jakarta and Samarinda.
Valuation: Share price at IDR 1,790, with a TP of IDR 2,500, implying a 31% discount.
Discount to RNAV: 51%.
Recommendation: BUY.

Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ)

Presales in 2Q15: IDR 2,597b (+29% YoY), 40% of FY15 target (IDR 11t).
Performance: Boosted by the sale of Ascott Service Apartment. However, office and premium products in Jakarta are under pressure.
Valuation: Share price at IDR 1,100, with a TP of IDR 1,550, implying a 38% discount.
Discount to RNAV: 65%.
Recommendation: HOLD.

Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ)

Presales in 2Q15: IDR 1,302b (+55% YoY), 45% of FY15 target (IDR 6,000b).
Performance: Strong growth driven by Lippo Cikarang, contributing 70% of total presales. New project launches in Manado and Jakarta.
Valuation: Share price at IDR 1,125, with a TP of IDR 1,200, implying a 7% upside.
Discount to RNAV: 42%.
Recommendation: HOLD.

Sentul City (BKSL IJ)

Presales in 2Q15: IDR 209b, 21% of FY15 target (IDR 2,000b).
Performance: Minimal project launches in 2015, leading to expected shortfall in presales.
Valuation: Share price at IDR 85, with a TP of IDR 140, implying a 65% discount.
Discount to RNAV: 91%.
Recommendation: HOLD.

Lippo Cikarang (LPCK IJ)

Presales in 2Q15: IDR 621b (+571% YoY), 76% of FY15 target (IDR 2,500b).
Performance: Strong growth due to bulk sales and promotional activities. Successfully launched new projects.
Valuation: Share price at IDR 8,700, with a TP of IDR 14,000, implying a 55% discount.
Discount to RNAV: 55%.
Recommendation: BUY.

Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ)

Presales in 2Q15: IDR 1,330b, 47% of FY15 target (IDR 5,500b).
Performance: Strong sales from new launches in Serpong township. Strategy focused on low-middle segment proves effective.
Valuation: Share price at IDR 1,765, with a TP of IDR 2,000, implying a 28% discount.
Discount to RNAV: 37%.
Recommendation: BUY.

Key Takeaways

The property market is expected to benefit from increased liquidity due to relaxed LTV regulations and promotional mortgage products.
Developers targeting the low-middle segment are performing better than those in the premium or middle-high segments.
SMRA, BSDE, and LPCK are the top BUYs due to strong performance and strategic positioning.
ASRI, CTRA, BKSL, and BEST face challenges and are at risk of missing their FY15 presales targets.
Ciputra Development and Lippo Karawaci are maintaining a HOLD rating due to mixed performance and reliance on specific projects.