20170105-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_392kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the oil and gas market trends as of 4 January 2017, including price movements, key news headlines, and analysis of the Asian and global oil and gas sectors. It also outlines recent reports and valuations for several companies in the region.

Major Oil & Gas Prices and Indices (Closing as of 4 Jan 2017)

Crude Oil (Brent): USD56.46/bbl, up 1.8% from the previous day, with a 1.8% weekly gain and 1.6% monthly gain.
Crude Oil (WTI): USD53.26/bbl, up 1.8% from the previous day, with a 1.8% weekly gain and 0.8% monthly gain.
Dubai Fateh Spot: USD53.58/barrel, down 3.0% weekly and 4.2% monthly.
China Daqing Spot: USD52.77/barrel, down 4.2% weekly and 1.1% monthly.
NYMEX Henry Hub: USD3.27/MMBtu, down 1.8% weekly and 16.2% monthly.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: USD8.75/MMBtu, up 2.8% weekly and 12.5% monthly.
Singapore 92 RON Spot: USD66.18/barrel, with no change weekly but 5.4% monthly growth.
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: USD65.08/gallon, down 1.6% weekly and 3.8% monthly.
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: USD332.24/mt, up 2.9% weekly and 1.8% monthly.
Gold: USD1,163.65/Oz, up 0.4% daily and 1.9% weekly.
USD-CNY: 6.93, down 0.4% daily and 0.4% weekly.
DJI: 19,942.16, up 0.3% daily and 0.5% weekly.
S&P 500: 2,270.75, up 0.6% daily and 0.9% weekly.

News Headlines

Oil rises on US supply data
- Oil prices rose nearly 2% on expectations that US crude inventories had dropped and that OPEC would stick to output cuts.
- Brent crude futures rose 1.8%, WTI also rose 1.8%.
- The American Petroleum Institute reported a 7.4 million barrel drop in crude stockpiles.
OPEC's long-term aim is to run down excess stocks
- OPEC's production cuts aim to reduce excess stocks.
- Goldman Sachs expects OPEC and non-OPEC nations to enact 84% of their agreed cuts, which could impact the oil futures curve and reduce global crude oversupply.
Rosneft privatisation deal closes
- Rosneft sold a 19.5% stake to Qatar Investment Authority and Glencore for about €10.5 billion.
- This deal suggests that the benefits of investing in Rosneft outweigh the risks of Western sanctions.
Outlook 2017: China's independent refiners face uncertain times
- China's government is tightening regulations on independent refiners, which could affect their profitability and crude import growth.
- The government is expected to issue crude import quotas of 20 million mt/year, a 19% decrease from 2016.

Our Latest Reports

UMW Oil & Gas - Bags charter for Naga 7 (BUY)
- Naga 7 will be chartered to Petronas Carigali S/B for 18 months.
- This is UMWOG's first rig contract in 2017, improving earnings forecasts.
- Target price offers a 27% upside.
Indorama Ventures - Polyester Juggernaut (BUY)
- Initiate a BUY rating with a target price of THB40.
- Based on 9.7x EV/EBITDA.
- IVL is now the world's largest PET producer with strong scale and cost competitiveness.
- Core net profit is expected to grow at a 26% 2-year CAGR, with FCF potentially turning positive in 2017.
Singapore Offshore & Marine - 2017 Still Not Easy (NEGATIVE)
- Despite OPEC's production cuts, the Singapore oil services sector remains challenging.
- Asset oversupply in shipyards and OSV owners may limit utilization improvements.
- The sector is expected to face financial difficulties due to slow cash flow.
Thailand Energy Sector - Be Selective (POSITIVE)
- Non-OPEC members agreed to cut production by 558k bpd starting in January 2017.
- OPEC may cut more than agreed, but US output and current oil prices suggest a cautious outlook.
- Stocks with attractive valuations and strong fundamentals, such as PTTGC and PTT, are preferred.

Asia Oil & Gas Valuations

PetroChina - H (857 HK): Hold, Price USD5.73, Target Price USD5.71, Market Cap USD202.4b, 90D T/O USD82.1m, PER 2016E 37.9x, 2017E 20.6x, EV/EBITDA 2016E 5.6x, 2017E 4.8x.
Sinopec - H (386 HK): Buy, Price USD5.52, Target Price USD6.70, Market Cap USD94.9b, 90D T/O USD62.3m, PER 2016E 15.8x, 2017E 15.0x, EV/EBITDA 2016E 5.5x, 2017E 5.5x.
CNOOC LTD (883 HK): Buy, Price USD9.80, Target Price USD11.74, Market Cap USD56.4b, 90D T/O USD82.0m, PER 2016E 174.2x, 2017E 17.4x, EV/EBITDA 2016E 6.5x, 2017E 4.2x.
New Ocean Energy (342 HK): Buy, Price USD2.08, Target Price USD4.50, Market Cap USD0.4b, 90D T/O USD0.7m, PER 2016E 31.1x, 2017E 25.5x, EV/EBITDA 2016E 4.6x, 2017E 3.9x.

Asia Oil-Service Valuations

COSL (2883 HK): NR, Price USD7.20, Market Cap USD7.2b, 90D T/O USD23.9m, PER 2016E N/A, 2017E N/A, EV/EBITDA 2016E N/A, 2017E N/A, ROE 2016E -54.8%, P/BV 2016E 17.1x, Yield 2016E -19.7%.
Anton Oil (3337 HK): NR, Price USD1.08, Market Cap USD0.3b, 90D T/O USD3.0m, PER 2016E N/A, 2017E 193.1x, EV/EBITDA 2016E N/A, 2017E 11.9x, ROE 2016E -3.0%, P/BV 2016E 9.3x, Yield 2016E -10.3%.
SPT Energy (1251 HK): NR, Price USD0.65, Market Cap USD0.1b, 90D T/O USD0.4m, PER 2016E N/A, 2017E N/A, EV/EBITDA 2016E N/A, 2017E N/A, ROE 2016E -10.3%, P/BV 2016E 16.5x, Yield 2016E -7.2%.
Hilong (1623 HK): NR, Price USD2.05, Market Cap USD0.4b, 90D T/O USD1.3m, PER 2016E 23.2x, 2017E 14.4x, EV/EBITDA 2016E 9.2x, 2017E 8.3x, ROE 2016E 4.8%, P/BV 2016E 1.0x, Yield 2016E 0.8%.
Honghua (196 HK): NR, Price USD0.74, Market Cap USD0.3b, 90D T/O USD1.3m, PER 2016E N/A, 2017E N/A, EV/EBITDA 2016E 39.6x, 2017E N/A, ROE 2016E -7.2%, P/BV 2016E 0.5x, Yield 2016E 0.0%.
Petro King (2178 HK): NR, Price USD0.46, Market Cap USD0.1b, 90D T/O USD0.4m, PER 2016E N/A, 2017E N/A, EV/EBITDA 2016E N/A, 2017E N/A, ROE 2016E -4.5%, P/BV 2016E N/A, Yield 2016E N/A.
Jutal Offshore (3303 HK): NR, Price USD0.76, Market Cap USD0.1b, 90D T/O USD0.3m, PER 2016E 75.5x, 2017E 29.5x, EV/EBITDA 2016E 13.1x, 2017E 8.6x, ROE 2016E N/A, P/BV 2016E N/A, Yield 2016E N/A.
Shengli Pipe (1080 HK): NR, Price USD0.37, Market Cap USD0.2b, 90D T/O USD0.1m, PER 2016E N/A, 2017E N/A, EV/EBITDA 2016E N/A, 2017E N/A, ROE 2016E N/A, P/BV 2016E N/A, Yield 2016E N/A.
Chu Kong Pipe (1938 HK): NR, Price USD1.08, Market Cap USD0.1b, 90D T/O USD0.0m, PER 2016E N/A, 2017E N/A, EV/EBITDA 2016E N/A, 2017E N/A, ROE 2016E N/A, P/BV 2016E N/A, Yield 2016E N/A.

Analysts Contact

Howard Wong: HK/CHINA, (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
Jessie Li: HK/CHINA, (852) 22680642, jessieli@kimeng.com.hk
Jigar Shah: INDIA, (91) 226623 2632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
Pandu Anugrah: INDONESIA, (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
Liaw Thong Jung: MALAYSIA, (603) 2297 8688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
Michael Bengson: PHILIPPINES, (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
Yeah Chee Keong: SINGAPORE, (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheekeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
Yupapan POLPORNPRASERT: THAILAND, (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395, yupapan.p@maybank-ke.co.th
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen: VIETNAM, (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh: VIETNAM, (84) 444555888 $\times$ 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn