20140811-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_12页_2mb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 11 August 2014
Market Overview
On Friday, U.S. stock markets showed positive trends with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 rising by 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively. The Henry Hub natural gas price increased by 2.2%. In Asia, China Daqing crude and Dubai Fateh crude both rose by 2.0% and 1.9%, respectively.
Key News Headlines
- US Airstrikes in Iraq: Improved the oil supply outlook by targeting Islamic militants' artillery camps, which were threatening Kurdish oil infrastructure.
- China Crude Imports: Increased by 2.06% MoM in July to 23.76m tonnes, likely due to commercial warehouse activity.
- China Refined Oil Imports: Decreased by 21.2% MoM to 1.86m tonnes, indicating reduced domestic demand or increased exports.
- PetroChina Ningxia Refinery: Halting LPG production for 35 days starting on 10 August, reducing LPG supply by 50% during the period.
- Seadrill Contract: Secured a USD497m job from ExxonMobil for operations in Nigeria.
- Petrobras 2Q Profits: Declined by 20% YoY, missing analyst expectations due to challenges in output growth and rising costs.
- Putin's Praise for Exxon: Recognized ExxonMobil as a reliable partner in Russia's Arctic oil drilling project with Rosneft.
- US Gas Production: Companies are revisiting mature wells with new technologies to extract more gas, with re-fracking being more cost-effective than drilling new wells.
- Platts LNG Price: The Japan-Korea LNG price increased by 5 cents to USD10.625/MMBtu, the first increase since February.
- Kinder Morgan Privatization: Entered into a USD44b privatization deal, marking one of the largest in the energy sector.
Latest Reports
- Nam Cheong Ltd: Maintained a BUY rating with a target price of SGD0.55, based on 2.2x FY15E P/BV using the Gordon Growth model. Consistent delivery and sustained optimism on vessel demand were noted.
- Perdana Petroleum: Recommended as a top pick for the OSV play with a target price of MYR2.55, based on 15x FY15 PER. Expected to benefit from the delivery and chartering of 4 new AWBs in 2016.
- Sembcorp Industries: Maintained a HOLD rating with a revised target price of SGD5.03, reflecting domestic power market pressures and a reduced SOTP-based valuation.
- Malaysia Marine & Heavy Engineering: Maintained a BUY rating with a target price of MYR4.60, raised due to a shift in valuation methodology to backlog-based, with a new multiple of 2.9x EV/backlog.
Regional Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (08-Aug) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDm) | 900 T/O (USDm) | P/E (X) 2014E | P/E (X) 2015E | EV/EBITDA (X) 2014E | EV/EBITDA (X) 2014E | RoE % 2014E | RoE % 2015E | P/B (X) 2014E | P/B (X) 2015E | Yield % 2014E | Yield % 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Buy | 10.24 | 11.50 | 235.3 | 94.4 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 11.3 | 1.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | - | - |
| Sinopoe - H | 386 HK | Hold | 7.53 | 6.85 | 102.5 | 73.3 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 11.7 | 1.1 | 4.0 | - | - | - |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Hold | 14.16 | 14.34 | 81.6 | 84.7 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 15.1 | 1.3 | 3.8 | - | - | - |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 394.20 | NR | 55.2 | 18.3 | 12.1 | 10.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - | - | - |
| INPEX | 1605 JT | NR | 1,518.50 | NR | 21.7 | 57.7 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 1.3 | - | - | - |
| JX Holding | 5020 JT | NR | 511.10 | NR | 12.5 | 44.7 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 11.7 | 1.3 | 3.3 | - | - | - |
| Showa Shell | 5002 JT | NR | 1,121.00 | NR | 4.1 | 18.6 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 2.3 | - | - | - |
| TonenGeneral | 5012 JT | NR | 891.00 | NR | 4.9 | 15.3 | 49.9 | 20.0 | 16.5 | 13.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 4.3 | - | - | - |
| Cosco Corp | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Analyst Contacts
- Hong Kong/China: Howard Wong (howardwong@kimeng.com.hk)
- India: Jigar Shah (jigar@maybank-ke.co.in)
- Indonesia: Pandu Anugrah (pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id)
- Malaysia: Liaw Thong Jung (tjiaw@maybank-ib.com)
- Philippines: Bianca Solema (bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com), Laura Dy-Liacco (laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com)
- Singapore: Yeast Chee Keong (yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg)
- Thailand: Sutthichai Kumworachai (sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th)
- Vietnam: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn), Truong Quang Binh (binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn)
Summary
The document outlines the market performance of oil and gas indices and stocks in the region on 11 August 2014. It highlights the positive trends in U.S. and Asian crude and natural gas prices, as well as notable news impacting the sector. Key developments include improved supply outlook due to U.S. airstrikes in Iraq, increased crude imports in China, and a decline in refined oil product imports. It also mentions the operational impact on PetroChina, the new contract for Seadrill, and the performance of Petrobras. Additionally, the document provides valuation comparisons and analyst contacts for various companies in the oil and gas sector.
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