20130923-招商证券_香港_-Research_Highlights_13页_213kb

报告摘要

Core Content: The document discusses the potential impact of the "Golden Week" on the Hong Kong stock market, emphasizing the seasonal effects on related sectors such as retail and gaming.
Main Points:
- The "Golden Week" factor is based on the market's consensus of seasonal revenue fluctuations and the surge in tourists.
- The Hong Kong retail and Macau gaming sectors do not show the same clear evidence of being affected by the "Super Golden Week" as mainland China's related sectors.
- The gaming sector is the most heavily-weighted among all sectors related to the holiday factor, followed by the transportation sector.
- Investment advice suggests focusing on the gaming sector and China's transportation industry due to their sensitivity to tourist influx.
- The "Golden Week" factor usually leads to short-term rallies within 1-2 weeks before or after the holiday.
- The market is expected to reach a high in late Q3 or early Q4 of 2013, with HSI estimated at 24,000-25,000 and HSCEI at 11,800-12,500.
- Investors are advised to seize the last round of buying opportunity and focus on liquidity-sensitive cyclicals and emerging sectors.

Core Content: The document highlights the potential for the Hong Kong market to benefit from the final round of the market carnival in 2013 due to Fed policy and China's economic recovery.
Main Points:
- The Fed FOMC meeting was a surprise to the market, with no tapering of QE and a focus on re-evaluation of policy direction.
- The market is expected to enjoy the final round of the 2013 carnival, with capital possibly flowing back to emerging markets and certain asset categories.
- However, the market may face economic slowdown and rising inflation from late 2013 to early 2014.
- The document recommends buying stocks in cyclical industries with low valuations and emerging industries with reform expectations and good earnings.

Core Content: The document provides insights into the Shanghai Free-Trade Zone concept and the new plan for alternative-energy vehicle subsidies.
Main Points:
- The Shanghai Free-Trade Zone is considered a significant step in China's reform and opening-up process.
- It is expected to become a test field for new reforms and a new growth pole.
- The Free-Trade Zone will include tax incentives, special trade policies, financial opening, and institutional innovation.
- Companies benefiting from the concept include those with tax reductions, real estate developers, and logistics firms.
- The new subsidy plan for alternative-energy vehicles focuses on blade electric vehicles and sets detailed standards for buses and fuel-cell vehicles.
- The plan may benefit BYD, as it is the only company that can enjoy the same level of support as in the previous plan.
- The policy also restricts entry barriers for non-local brands and sets minimum standards for alternative-energy vehicle usage in public sectors.

Core Content: The document lists key stocks and their performance, ratings, and target prices.
Key Information:
- A variety of stocks are analyzed, including those in the sectors of Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods, Metals & Mining, Auto & Others, Oil & Gas, Property, Consumer Discretionary, and Telecommunication.
- The table includes detailed data such as stock codes, short names, ratings, price currency, latest price, target price, upside potential, EPS, and P/E ratios.
- Key highlights include:
  - Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods: Belle is recommended for a "Buy" with a 45% upside potential.
  - Metals & Mining: Jiangxi Copper is recommended for a "Buy" with a 23% upside potential.
  - Auto & Others: Geely Auto and Dongfeng Group are recommended for a "Buy" with potential gains.
  - Oil & Gas: Petro China and Sinopec Corp are recommended for a "Buy" with positive upside potential.
  - Property: China Overseas and R&F Properties are recommended for a "Buy" with modest upside potential.
  - Consumer Discretionary: Sa Sa is recommended for a "Buy" with a 11.9% upside potential.
  - Telecommunication: China Unicom is recommended for a "Buy" with a 9% upside potential.
  - Information Technology: Tencent and Kingsoft are recommended for a "Buy" with significant upside potential.

HK Indices:
- HSI: Last price 23,502.51, change 385.0, % change 1.67
- Finance: Last price 32,739.12, change 557.0, % change 1.73
- Properties: Last price 31,526.77, change 1019, % change 3.34
- Utilities: Last price 50,863.58, change 226.6, % change 0.45
- Commerce & Industry: Last price 13,634.21, change 175.5, % change 1.30
- HSCEI: Last price 10,769.54, change 181.5, % change 1.71
- HSCCI: Last price 4,488.14, change 34.87, % change 0.78
- HKSPGEM: Last price 436.00, change 2.71, % change 0.63
World Indices:
- FTSE 100: Last price 6,596.43, change -28.96, % change -0.44
- DAX 30: Last price 8,675.73, change -18.45, % change -0.21
- CAC 40: Last price 4,203.66, change -2.38, % change -0.06
- DJIA: Last price 15,451.09, change -185.46, % change -1.19
- S&P500: Last price 1,709.91, change -12.43, % change -0.72
- Nasdaq Composite: Last price 3,774.73, change -14.66, % change -0.39
- Nikkei 225: Last price 14,742.42, change -23.76, % change -0.16
Asia-Pacific Indices:
- KOSPI: Last price 2,005.58, change -7.79, % change -0.39
- TWSE: Last price 8,209.18, change -40.60, % change -0.49
- STI: Last price 3,237.53, change -14.25, % change -0.44
- India BSE 30: Last price 20,263.71, change -382.93, % change -1.85
- S&P/ASX 200: Last price 5,276.69, change -18.86, % change -0.36

Global Commodity:
- Brent Oil: Last price 109.91, change -0.28, % change -0.25
- Gold: Last price 1,330.5, change 4.50, % change 0.34
- LME Aluminum: Last price 1,800.0, change -29.00, % change -1.59
- LME Copper: Last price 7,280.0, change -55.00, % change -0.75
- BDI: Last price 1,904.0, change 44.00, % change 2.37
- API Coal: Last price 84.25, change -0.30, % change -0.35
Exchange / Currency / Market:
- USD/RMB: 6.16, change 0.00, % change 0.00
- USD/HKD: 7.75, change 0.00, % change 0.00
- 1-YR RMB NDF: 6.19, change 0.00, % change 0.00
- EUR/USD: 135.33, change 0.01, % change 0.01
- 3-M Libor: 0.52, change 0.00, % change 0.00
- 3-M Shibor: 4.66, change 0.00, % change 0.00
- 10 YR US T-Note Yield: 2.73, change -0.02, % change -0.73