2021-12-20-牛津经济研究院-Norway_Omicron_weighs_on_near-term_growth_outlook_1页_119kb

Norway's economic forecast for 2021 and 2022 has been revised upward due to strong GDP growth in August and September 2021. The GDP outlook is now 4.1% for 2021 and 4.3% for 2022, but this could be affected by the Omicron variant spreading toward the end of 2021 and early 2022, with new hospitality restrictions slowing service recovery, though strict limitations are unlikely due to high vaccination rates.

October 2021 GDP growth was flat amid a weak fishing sector; excluding fishing, growth was 0.3% month-on-month. Services spending has surpassed pre-pandemic levels in October, supported by consumer confidence, but winter slowdowns may ease with a partial shift toward goods spending due to excess savings.

With energy prices declining in November, the current account is expected to average 10.7% of GDP in 2022. Inflation spiked above 5% due to base effects, but is projected to fall to 1.7% in 2022.

Norges Bank increased its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.5% in December, and despite downgrading 2022 growth due to Omicron, it still anticipates three rate hikes next year, though there is a slight tilt toward fewer increases due to uncertainties.

• GDP Forecast: Revised to 4.1% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022; Omicron may slow Q4 growth.
• Consumption: Services recovering post-restrictions, with potential shift to goods spending.
• Current Account: Expected to average 10.7% of GDP in 2022 after declining with high levels in Q4 2021.
• Inflation: Projected to peak above 5% and fall to 1.7% in 2022.
• Monetary Policy: Bank rate at 0.5%; likely three hikes in 2022, though outlook unchanged.