2022-04-03-牛津经济研究院-Norway_Slower_growth_outlook_impacted_by_Russia-Ukraine_war_1页_135kb
报告摘要
Norway Economic Forecast Summary
Date: 30 March 2022
Growth Outlook
- 2022 GDP Growth: Downwardly revised to 3.6% primarily due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Omicron outbreak impact.
- 2023 GDP Growth: Revised upwards to 2.3%.
Inflation
- February 2022 inflation: 3.7% y/y.
- Latest concern: Core inflation (CPI less Energy and Taxes less Alcohol and Tobacco, i.e., CPI-ATE) has surpassed 2%.
- 2022 Inflation Forecast: Raised to 4.4%. Prices are expected to remain high amid energy disinflation but above target (2.7%).
- CPI-ATE rose above 2% in February, indicating underlying price pressures.
Monetary Policy
- Norges Bank (Central Bank) March 2022:
- Hiked policy rate 25bps to 0.75%.
- Penciled in four rate hikes this year and next.
- Already factored in four 2022 rate hikes.
Key Economic Indicators (Forecast Overview - Annual % Chg)
| Category | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Private Consumption | 4.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Fixed Investment | -0.3 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Government Consumption | 3.9 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Exports of Goods and Services | 5.1 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Imports of Goods and Services | 1.6 | 10.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Mainland GDP | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Industrial Production | 3.3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Consumer Prices | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 15.4 | 25.5 | 13.9 | 7.6 | 5.1 |
| Cen. Bank Policy Rate (%) | 0.50 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| 10yr Govt Bond Yield (%) (EOP) | 1.71 | 2.21 | 2.32 | 2.44 | 2.51 |
| Exchange Rate (NOK/USD) | 8.82 | 8.39 | 7.65 | 7.24 | 6.93 |
This summary captures the key points, changes in forecasts, and critical data from the report dated 30 March 2022.
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