20140729-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_25页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 29 July 2014
Core Content Overview
This document provides a detailed analysis of regional market sectors, including plantation, toll roads, and property, along with updates on key indices, earnings, and recommendations for specific companies. It also outlines changes in sector ratings and key assumptions affecting market forecasts.
Main Sectors and Key Points
Plantation Sector
- Sector Update: The plantation sector is downgraded to MARKET WEIGHT due to weaker-than-expected demand in 1H14 and higher-than-expected inventory levels.
- CPO Price Assumptions: Revised CPO price forecasts to RM2,600/tonne for 2014 and RM2,800/tonne for 2015 (previously RM2,950/tonne).
- Demand and Supply:
- 2014 demand growth is expected to be 4.7% and 2015 6.2% (down from previous 7.0% and 4.6%).
- Global CPO production remains at 59.6m tonnes for 2014 and 62.4m tonnes for 2015.
- Regional Downgrades:
- Malaysia and Singapore plantation sectors downgraded to UNDERWEIGHT.
- Indonesia plantation sector maintained as OVERWEIGHT.
- Companies:
- BUY: Astra Agro Lestari, First Resources.
- SELL: Genting Plantations, IJM Plantations, IOI Corporation, Mewah International, JUM Plantations.
- HOLD: Wilmar International, Bumitama Agri, Golden Agri-Resources, Sarawak Oil Palm, Kencana Agri, Indofood Agri Resources.
Toll Road Sector - China
- Performance: Solid toll revenue growth of 4-18% yoy in 1H14.
- Current Yields: 4.2-7.5% remain reasonable despite recent share price strength.
- Recommendations:
- BUY: JSE, ZJE, SZE, AHE.
- HOLD: SCE.
- Target Price Adjustments:
- SZE's target price raised from HK$4.05 to HK$5.00 due to improved earnings forecasts.
- Key Catalysts: Strong average daily traffic (ADT) and average daily revenue (ADR) growth, especially in Shenzhen city roads and Qinglian Expressway.
Property Sector - Singapore
- Performance: Office sector continues to lead.
- Sector Status: Maintained as OVERWEIGHT.
Key Indices
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 16982.6 | 0.1 | (0.4) | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| S&P 500 | 1978.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 7.1 |
| FTSE 100 | 6788.1 | (0.1) | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| AS30 | 5569.9 | (0.1) | 0.7 | 2.6 | 4.0 |
| CSI 300 | 2323.9 | 2.8 | 7.3 | 8.1 | (0.3) |
| FSSTI | 3350.2 | (0.1) | 1.2 | 2.4 | 5.8 |
| HSI | 24428.6 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| KLCI | 1877.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | (0.2) | 0.6 |
| Nikkei 225 | 15529.4 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 2.9 | (4.7) |
| SET | 1538.1 | (0.4) | (0.0) | 3.7 | 18.4 |
| TWSE | 9420.2 | (0.2) | 0.2 | 1.2 | 9.4 |
| BDI | 743 | 0.5 | 2.6 | (10.6) | (67.4) |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2340 | (0.0) | (1.9) | (6.2) | (9.0) |
| Nymex Crude (US$/bbl) | 102 | (0.1) | (2.8) | (4.0) | 3.1 |
Key Assumptions
| Assumption | 2014F | 2015F |
|---|---|---|
| CPO Price (RM/tonne) | 2600 | 2800 |
| Supply Growth (%) | 2.9 | 4.1 |
| Demand Growth (%) | 4.7 | 6.2 |
Corporate Events
- China Yongda Automobiles Services Luncheon: Hong Kong, 29 Jul.
- Top Glove Corporate Roadshow: Toronto and Montreal.
- Greater China 2H14 Market Strategy Analyst Presentation: Hong Kong, 31 Jul - 1 Aug.
- Thailand 2H14 Market Strategy & Property Sector Analyst Presentation: Singapore (30 Jul - 31 Jul) and Kuala Lumpur (4 Aug - 5 Aug).
Sector Catalysts
- El Nino Impact: Stronger-than-expected impact on production in drought-affected areas.
- Biodiesel Take-up: Better-than-expected take-up rate for biodiesel production in Indonesia in 4Q14.
- Toll Road: Solid ADT and ADR growth in Shenzhen city roads and Qinglian Expressway.
Risks
- Higher-than-expected soybean oil supply.
- Decline in crude oil prices.
Earnings Adjustments
| Company | 2014 EPS (Old) | 2014 EPS (New) | Adjustment (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarawak Oil Palm | 46.9 | 32.2 | (31.4) |
| Genting Plantations | 55.9 | 42.8 | (23.5) |
| IJM Plantations | 20.2 | 15.4 | (23.5) |
| KL Kepong | 137.8 | 128.5 | (6.8) |
| IOI Corporation | 28.1 | 25.7 | (8.5) |
| Sime Darby | 52.9 | 49.2 | (7.0) |
| Kencana Agri | 1.6 | 1.0 | (38.2) |
| First Resources | 17.4 | 15.7 | (9.5) |
| Bumitama Agri | 8.7 | 7.2 | (17.3) |
| Golden Agri-Resources | 4.4 | 3.7 | (16.0) |
| Wilmar International | 26.4 | 23.6 | (10.4) |
| Indofood Agri Resources | 8.8 | 5.9 | (33.4) |
| Astra Agro Lestari | 2,082 | 1,782 | (14.4) |
| BW Plantation | 91 | 70 | (23.3) |
| Sampoerna Agro | 163 | 163 | - |
| London Sumatra | 160 | 142 | (11.5) |
Summary of Recommendations
| Company | Recommendation | Target Price (RM/S$) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astra Agro Lestari | BUY | 32,100 | |
| First Resources | BUY | 2.80 | |
| JSE | BUY | 11.39 | |
| ZJE | BUY | 8.84 | |
| SZE | BUY | 5.00 | Target price raised |
| AHE | BUY | 5.35 | |
| Kencana Agri | HOLD | 0.21 | |
| Indofood Agri Resources | HOLD | 0.97 | |
| Wilmar International | HOLD | 3.55 | |
| Golden Agri-Resources | HOLD | 0.57 | |
| Bumitama Agri | HOLD | 1.30 | |
| Sarawak Oil Palm | HOLD | 7.05 | |
| KL Kepong | HOLD | 21.85 | |
| IOI Corporation | SELL | 4.15 | |
| Genting Plantations | SELL | 8.45 | |
| IJM Plantations | SELL | 2.85 | |
| JUM Plantations | SELL | 3.25 | |
| Mewah International | SELL | 0.32 |
Conclusion
The report highlights a shift in market sentiment towards the plantation sector, with reduced demand and inventory concerns leading to downgrades. Toll roads in China show solid performance with continued growth, while property in Singapore remains a key focus. The document also includes detailed earnings forecasts and adjustments, as well as key assumptions affecting future outlooks.
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