20230507-创元期货-甲醇周报_供给恢复_需求难起_19页_1mb

Supply Analysis:
Weekly methanol production increased to 1.526 million tons, up 60,000 tons from the previous week, with East China contributing the largest increase. Utilization rates vary by region, with Northwest at 80% low but with potential recovery, West China stable at high levels, and East China recovering due to downstream MTO demand. National supply is relatively strong compared to demand.

Inventory Analysis:
Total national inventory increased to 1.09 million tons, up 90,000 tons, with inland regions adding 20,000 tons and port regions increasing 70,000 tons. This slight accumulation occurs as production and imports rise, while demand usage remains steady or slightly down.

Demand Analysis:
Methanol-to-olefins (MTO) utilization rose slightly to 83.42%, with East China showing strong recovery but still below pre-pandemic levels. MTO profit is negative at -1,239.5 yuan/ton, indicating weak market absorption. Traditional demand may show better signs, but overall demand remains weak.

Market Outlook:
Supply is resuming, leading to inventory accumulation, while downstream profit is poor. Demand recovery is unlikely, resulting in a bearish outlook for methanol in the short term.

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