2024全球农民洞察_-英文-麦肯锡_20页_1mb

Summary:

In 2024, global farmers are increasingly prioritizing productivity amid challenges such as rising input costs, extreme weather events, and volatile commodity prices. These factors have become the top three risks to profitability for farmers over the next two years. While input prices remain the leading concern (48% of farmers identify them as the main risk), the gap between input prices and extreme weather events has narrowed significantly, with the latter now considered the second most pressing risk. Commodity price volatility, a new risk introduced in this survey, also poses challenges, particularly in North America, where 30% of farmers view it as a top risk.

Farmer sentiment on future profitability varies by region. In India and Latin America, there is more optimism, with over half of farmers expecting higher profits in the next two years. In contrast, European and North American farmers remain more pessimistic, with 64% and 55% expecting lower profits this year, respectively. The negative outlook in North America and Europe is attributed to falling grain prices, reduced export demand, and rising production costs, whereas farmer confidence in India and Latin America is supported by increased rice prices and favorable conditions for crop production.

Sustainable practices are being adopted globally, driven by the potential for yield improvements and additional revenue streams. The main sustainable practices include crop rotation (68%), reduced or no-till farming (56%), and variable rate spraying or fertilization (40%). While adoption rates vary by region, economic incentives and the need for cost efficiency are key factors. In the U.S. and Brazil, bionutrients and biocontrols have gained momentum, partly due to government support and the high cost of traditional inputs. However, low awareness and lack of clear incentives are barriers to adoption in many regions, particularly in India and Mexico, where over 90% of farmers have not heard of carbon programs.

The adoption of digital technologies is growing slowly but steadily among farmers. North America leads in the use of digital agronomy and precision agriculture tools. European and Latin American farmers are more open to certain digital use cases, such as sprayer section controllers and variable-rate fertilization. However, challenges such as unclear return on investment (ROI) and high implementation and maintenance costs hinder widespread adoption. In particular, European farmers are skeptical about the ROI of agtech due to farm size limitations.

Farmers still prefer in-person interactions for purchasing decisions, using digital tools as a complement rather than a replacement. In Latin America, digital platforms like WhatsApp are widely used for communication and support. In India, less than 10% of farmers prefer digital interactions throughout their purchasing journey. Distributors, especially integrated ones, remain critical in influencing purchasing decisions due to their local knowledge and ability to offer personalized services.

To support farmers effectively, organizations should focus on providing ROI-centric solutions, highlighting the financial benefits of sustainable practices, and increasing awareness of carbon programs and other environmental initiatives. They should also deepen relationships with channel partners, leveraging digital tools to enhance service delivery and promote sustainable adoption. Overall, the 2024 survey highlights the need for tailored, sustainable, and technology-enabled solutions that help farmers navigate challenges and increase profitability.