2025-06-11-Jefferies-切维（CHWY）_一个良好的开端；维持持有评级_目标价44美元_11页_391kb

USA Consumer Health & Wellness Equity Research: Chewy (CHWY)

Executive Summary

• Rating: Hold
• Price Target: $44 (up 8% from current price of $40.76)

Key positives highlighted in the report include a positive start to 2025 with key metrics moving favorably. Active customers increased 4% YoY and became more valuable. Sponsored ads exceeded internal expectations, driving share gains and supporting momentum even as the macroeconomic environment stabilizes. Q1 2025 results significantly surpassed consensus expectations for sales ($3.1bn, +8.3% YoY) and Adj. EBITDA ($703m), near the top end of management's guidance. Financials showed solid improvement, including gross margins up by ~60bps excluding one-offs, demonstrating underlying operational efficiency.

The report attributes these improvements to supply chain efficiencies, ramping sponsored ads, and increasing uptake of pet health products. The thesis involves share gains and accelerated customer spend through better digital marketing ROI and pet industry normalization. However, valuation concerns keep the firm on the sidelines.

Based on its analysis, the firm sets a forward 2027E Adj. EBITDA target of $930m and values Chewy at 20x this EBITDA multiple, leading to the $44 price target.

Key Highlights

1. Performance Review:

   • Q1 2025: Sales beat high-end guidance (+8.3% YoY vs. $3.1bn). Adj. EBITDA significantly exceeded consensus ($703m vs. $548m expected).
   • Active Customers: Up 4% YoY and more valuable.
   • Better Metrics: Gross margins improved by ~60bps YoY (excluding one-times). Adj. EBITDA margin reached 5.6% vs. Street consensus expectations.
   • Guidance: Full-year 2025 guidance reiterated. Q1 beat reinforces confidence, suggesting future performance will lean towards the upper end of the range.
   • Management: Confident about doubling the industry's projected growth rate.

2. Growth Drivers:

   • Pet Health: $1bn revenue potential from a maturing market.
   • Sponsored Ads: Significant upside potential.
   • International Expansion:
   • Vet Clinics: Margin-accretive initiatives driving both sales and profits.

3. Financial Projections (Illustrative - for context):

   • Full-year 2025 projected sales slightly higher to account for Q1 beat.
   • Moderate revenue growth projected for 2026-2027 (5.1% and no change by 2026?).
   • Continued margin expansion targeted (+70bps avg. YoY 2025). EBITDA growth expected (+13.3% YoY in 2025 est.).

4. Outlook:

   • Near-Term (Q2/2025): Positive direction based on Q1 performance and management confidence.
   • 18-Month (2025-2026): Positive outlook supported by maintained momentum and strong performance.
   • Long-Term: Unchanged investment thesis. Targets set at a 10% Adj. EBITDA margin ultimately.

5. Valuation:

   • $44 Price Target (+8%) based on 20x 2027E Adj. EBITDA ($930m).
   • Diluted earnings growth (JEF) projected 5.1% in 2023, showing moderate improvement.
   • The current valuation is considered high, reinforcing the Hold recommendation. A better entry point requires monitoring.

Investment Thesis

• Enhancing online market share through better digital marketing ROI (especially ads).
• Driving higher basket sizes via premiumization.
• Leverage economies of scale (potential benefits noted).
• Expanding into pet health and international markets.

Risks

• Valuation Concern: Current price target isn't achieved based on current views.
• Execution Risk: Management's ability to drive growth and margin improvement depends on their execution.
• Competitive Landscape: Intensifying competition.
• Operational/Logistical Risks: Labor and logistics disruptions.
• Macro: Possible economic factors impacting discretionary spending.
• Unfavorable Ad Market: Rising costs associated with sponsored ads.

Key Metrics (Q1 FY25)

• Active Customers (global): 20.8m (+1.2% Q/Q, +3.8% YoY)
• Sales: $3.116 billion (+8.3% YoY)
• Adj. EBITDA: $193 million (+4.1% YoY), $6.2% margin.

Analyst Certification

The views expressed by Kaumil Gajrawala and co-authors are their personal views and not tied to compensation, unless explicitly stated otherwise as per standard disclaimer practices common in equity research reports from firms like Jefferies.