Incrementum-月度黄金指南针——2025年6月_81页_3mb

报告摘要

In Gold We Trust – Summary

Gold:
- Gold is viewed as a primary global currency, along with silver, due to its universal acceptance.
- Gold has shown strong performance over the long term, with significant gains during economic crises (e.g., 2008 crisis).
- Gold is an inflation hedge, especially during times of high or negative real interest rates.
- Both paper gold and physical ownership (e.g., jewelry, collector coins) are impacted by inflation and interest rates, though nominal gold prices may rise during recessions.
Silver:
- Similar to gold, silver acts as an inflation hedge and is a more performant asset but more volatile.
- Silver consistently underperforms gold when held over 1 year, due to supply-demand dynamics.
- Silver’s performance is correlated with the overall macroeconomic cycle and commodity trends.
Mining Stocks:
- Gold miners tend to outperform paper gold (GDX) during recessions, particularly in later phases of the cycle.
- Silver miners (SIL) generally underperform silver, offering lower returns and higher volatility.
- Platinum and palladium may decline during inflation but perform better in deflationary periods.
Macro View:
- Rising debt levels and negative real interest rates speak for inflation and a search for liquidity, which benefits gold and silver.
- High inflation, recession risks, and USD strength have a negative impact on risky assets.
- Gold and silver can protect against inflation and market crashes, acting as recession buffers.
Long Term Charts:
- Gold and silver prices remain below historical highs but have shown resilience.
- Inflation signals may indicate near-term inflation (peak October 2025), shifted from expectations.
Proprietary Models:
- The Inflation Signal (ICOM) model helps determine whether gold is in a "peak" or "trend" phase.
- In gold phases 1 to 3, gold correlates better with stocks early (Phase 1), and silver (Phase 2) and miners (Phase 3) show improved performance.
- Gold is highly recommended as an inflation hedge, especially in Phase 1 (strong upside potential in Phase 2–3).