2024-08-12-Incrementum-2024年8月月度黄金指南针（英）_81页_2mb

Monthly Gold Compass Summary - August 2024

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the performance and trends of gold and silver from 2000 to 2024, with a focus on their returns in various currencies, correlations with other financial indicators, and the behavior of gold and silver miners.

Key Points

Gold

• Gold as a Currency: Alan Greenspan views gold as the primary global currency, alongside silver, which does not require a counterparty signature.
• Performance in Major Currencies (2000–2024 YTD):
  • Gold showed strong performance in several currencies, particularly in EUR, GBP, and CHF, with a notable 21.6% return in USD for 2024 YTD.
  • The average annual return for gold across all currencies was 9.3%.
• Annualized Performance (if Bought on the Last Day of the Month and Held until 07/31/2024):
  • Gold had an average monthly return of around 7.5% to 9.5% over the years, with the highest returns in 2010 and 2022.
  • In 2024, the highest return was in July (12.60%) and the lowest in August (3.1%).
• Correlation Table (07/31/2024):
  • Gold generally showed negative correlation with the DXY (Dollar Index) and positive correlation with GDX (Gold Miners Index).
  • Gold had a moderate positive correlation with the S&P 500 and a negative correlation with the VIX (Volatility Index).
  • Gold was positively correlated with the CRB TR (Commodity Research Bureau Index) and WTI (West Texas Intermediate), but the correlation with Copper and Bitcoin was weak.
• Historical Trends:
  • The chart from 01/1970 to 07/2024 shows gold's long-term performance in USD, indicating a general upward trend with periodic fluctuations.
  • The chart from 08/2022 to 07/2024 highlights the performance of gold in USD and EUR, showing a rise in both currencies.
  • The chart from 08/2014 to 07/2024 displays the performance of gold against the Incrementum World Gold Price (IWGP), indicating a positive trend.
  • COMEX Gold Deliveries data shows an increase in the number of deliveries over the period from 01/2007 to 07/2024.
  • The chart of gold (nominal) and gold (US CPI Adjusted) illustrates the impact of inflation on gold prices.
• Gold ETF Flows by Region:
  • The data shows the monthly flows of gold ETFs in tonnes and gold prices in USD from 01/2004 to 06/2024, indicating fluctuating investor interest.

Silver

• Silver as a Investment: Rich Ross states that trading silver is a tough way to make an easy living, suggesting it is not as straightforward as gold.
• Performance in Major Currencies (2000–2024 YTD):
  • Silver had a significant 25.3% average return across currencies for 2024 YTD.
  • In 2005, silver had the highest return in USD (29.7%), and in 2020, it had a strong performance in USD (47.8%).
• Annualized Performance (if Bought on the Last Day of the Month and Held until 07/31/2024):
  • Silver had an average monthly return of around 5.5% to 8.5%, with the highest returns in 2010 and 2022.
  • In 2024, the highest return was in November (13.28%) and the lowest in August (2.04%).
• Correlation Table (07/31/2024):
  • Silver showed a negative correlation with the DXY and positive correlation with SIL (Silver Miners Index).
  • It had a moderate positive correlation with the S&P 500 and a negative correlation with the VIX.
  • Silver was positively correlated with the CRB TR and WTI, but the correlation with Copper and Bitcoin was weak.
• Historical Trends:
  • The chart from 01/1970 to 07/2024 shows silver's long-term performance in USD, indicating a general upward trend with periodic fluctuations.
  • The chart from 08/2014 to 07/2024 displays the performance of silver against the Incrementum World Silver Price (IWSP), showing a positive trend.
  • COMEX Silver Deliveries data shows an increase in the number of deliveries over the period from 01/2007 to 07/2024.
  • The chart of silver (nominal) and silver (US CPI Adjusted) illustrates the impact of inflation on silver prices.
• Performance Relative to Gold:
  • The chart from 08/2014 to 07/2024 shows the relative performance of silver compared to gold, indicating periods of outperformance and underperformance.

Main Views

• Gold and Silver as Global Currencies: Both are considered as currencies that do not require a counterparty, making them attractive during times of economic uncertainty.
• Performance Trends: Gold and silver have shown positive performance in many years, with gold outperforming silver in most periods, especially in 2020 and 2022.
• Correlation Analysis: Gold has a stronger correlation with commodity indices and weaker with the VIX and Bitcoin, while silver shows a moderate correlation with the S&P 500 and a weaker correlation with the VIX and Bitcoin.
• ETF Flows: Gold ETF flows indicate fluctuating investor interest, with a general trend of increasing flows over the years.

Key Information

• Gold Performance (2000–2024 YTD):
  • Strongest returns in USD for 2024 YTD (18.6%).
  • Average annual return of 9.3%.
• Silver Performance (2000–2024 YTD):
  • Strongest returns in USD for 2024 YTD (22.2%).
  • Average annual return of 7.3%.
• Miner Performance:
  • Miners (HUI, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ) had varied performance compared to bullion, with some months showing significant gains and others losses.
  • In 2022, miners showed strong performance, particularly in November (15.57% for GDXJ).
• Correlation Insights:
  • Gold had a negative correlation with the DXY and a positive correlation with GDX and CRB TR.
  • Silver had a negative correlation with the DXY and a positive correlation with SIL and CRB TR.
• Inflation Adjusted Performance:
  • Both gold and silver showed positive performance when adjusted for inflation, indicating their value retention over time.
• Market Trends:
  • The report highlights the importance of tracking both bullion and miner performance for a comprehensive view of the precious metals market.
  • It also emphasizes the role of ETF flows and deliverables in understanding market sentiment and activity.